1. Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by SD, Aug 13, 2017.

  1. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,166
    Likes Received:
    4,294
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    Models are enthusiastic about this one

    Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
     
  2. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Yeah this wave has a lot of convection and should have no issue sustaining it as a strong CCKW passes over it and there's little-no SAL...
    T0AT7Sn2GsKfH.jpg

    28.gif

    splitEW.jpg
     
  3. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    8,202
    Likes Received:
    9,057
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    [​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  4. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    8,202
    Likes Received:
    9,057
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    [​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    accu35 likes this.
  5. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,245
    Likes Received:
    3,744
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    GFS is quite insane for this one now.[​IMG]
     
    accu35 likes this.
  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    At least the Euro is on board with development of 91L by the time it passes the Antilles, and there's another TC hot on its heels (in compliance w/ EPS)
    ecmwf_mslpa_watl_11.png
     
    accu35 and Storm5 like this.
  7. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    8,202
    Likes Received:
    9,057
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    One day the gfs will be right .... I swear I feel like I've seen that frame 10 times already this summer


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    whatalife, accu35 and metwannabe like this.
  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,245
    Likes Received:
    3,744
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    Yep, I would not like to see it, but the GFS says nope, have it again. This one could go anywhere.
     
    accu35 likes this.
  9. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,367
    Likes Received:
    1,506
    Location:
    Extreme North Coosa County

    It could give Shane rain, of course it's wrong.
     
  10. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,166
    Likes Received:
    4,294
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    Not true. The only way I get rain is ULLs and hurricanes between matthew hermine and 2 ulls i got 25 inches of rain.

    Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
     
  11. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,367
    Likes Received:
    1,506
    Location:
    Extreme North Coosa County

    Hmm maybe it's #showmethemoney then. What are the starting odds and who has a few bucks for me to borrow.
     
  12. accu35

    accu35 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    3,025
    Likes Received:
    1,136
    Wow, things about to get fired up. Charlie's right, gfs will end up being right one day and i have this little feeling that gfs could be right. Not wish casting. We are about to reach our peak season. Just be alert and aware and ready.
     
  13. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,547
    Likes Received:
    4,986
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2017
  14. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,367
    Likes Received:
    1,506
    Location:
    Extreme North Coosa County
    I have a feeling the XTRP model will absolutely nail this over the next five days.

    All hail the XTRP model.
     
  15. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    2,128
    Likes Received:
    1,612
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    this could be really interesting
     
    pcbjr likes this.
  16. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,245
    Likes Received:
    3,744
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    Looking at the 500 levels, I think this storm is going to hit land. There is no trough sweeping it away, so unfortunately we could see a big threat. All assuming it forms.
     
  17. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    1,658
    Location:
    Lexington, SC
    I'll pass on that one.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  18. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,547
    Likes Received:
    4,986
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Very good point, FS!
     
  19. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    2,128
    Likes Received:
    1,612
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    12z GFS is offshore but gives a good scare from the Carolinas to Maine
     
  20. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,553
    Likes Received:
    4,167
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    Threatens NE US on the 12Z GFS. What protects the SE (offshore high too weak to bring it all the way into the SE US) allows it to recurve to just offshore of Cape Cod on 8/26 on the 12Z GFS (for the record).
     
    whatalife likes this.
  21. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    8,202
    Likes Received:
    9,057
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    There is a huge opening for a stronger storm to stay offshore or become a fish as it will turn poleward with nothing to force it west . [​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  22. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    EPS much further south than the GEFS suite with 91L, hinting at a possible long tracked Caribbean Cruiser and/or interaction with the Greater Antilles...
    Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 1.10.20 PM.png
     
  23. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,245
    Likes Received:
    3,744
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    That map doesn't look good at all. I would put more stock into the EPS at this range than the GEFS. If this thing gets shredded like the rest before it even gets to the Antilles then it will end up like the others, but isn't the environment better for development now?
     
  24. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    yeah the environment looks better than it did for 99L. 91L has a 1.5-2 week climatological advantage, passage of a strong(er) CCKW in the eastern Atlantic (which makes sense given the larger-scale MJO envelope has moved further east from the eastern Pacific to over and just beyond the tropical Atlantic), MJO juxtaposition is more conducive, and this system has a very large moisture envelope with little-no SAL to its north & west.
     
    ForsythSnow likes this.
  25. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Latest NHC TWO increases the chances for TCG to 10/30 % the next 2 and 5 days respectively
     
  26. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Last 4 runs of the european model valid for 12z August 13, including today's 12z initialization. No doubt the model is becoming more impressed with 91L and the monsoon trough over the eastern Atlantic with time, we'll see if this carries over into latter portions of this run or subsequent runs...
    Unknown.gif
     
  27. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    The Euro tries to develop 2 separate disturbances in the eastern MDR in the short term instead of just 91L...
    ecmwf_uv850_vort_atltropics_3.png
     
  28. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    7,315
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Oh man this Euro run is going nuts... 91L is well to the north & east of the Lesser Antilles, a broad low currently in the monsoon trough develops into a hurricane as it passes the antilles (hence nullifying the canonical John Hope Rule wrt the graveyard) and there's another system following hot on its heels...
    ecmwf_mslpa_atltropics_7.png
     
    Storm5 likes this.
  29. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    8,202
    Likes Received:
    9,057
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    12z euro headed for the shredder [​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  30. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,547
    Likes Received:
    4,986
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    What is the best aspirin to dull this ...(???) ... o_O
     
    whatalife likes this.

Share This Page