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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

looks like this will be the first chance at Harvey

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
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It's time that this thing does something. It's already been in favorable upper level winds.
 
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I think this one is going to do well. Upper level low is moving west, and shear is subsiding in its wake.

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The euro has been most consistent with development over the last 5 days Going back to the weekend . Intensity wise they were all wrong though


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Storm5 said:
The euro has been most consistent with development over the last 5 days Going back to the weekend . Intensity wise they were all wrong though


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Yep, half a point for finding goes to the Euro, but the CMC and HWRF seem to be close to the NHC forecast. The CMC seems to have been the first major model to get a clue about big development.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep, half a point for finding goes to the Euro, but the CMC and HWRF seem to be close to the NHC forecast. The CMC seems to have been the first major model to get a clue about big development.
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Lol what? The CMC didn't start ramping this up till yesterday which was the first day in the last week that it even developed it . I wouldn't call that a win at all.


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And the HWRF has been just as bad as the gfs this year . Look at all the tropical threads we have , it cranked out majors for a majority of them


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Storm5 said:
Lol what? The CMC didn't start ramping this up till yesterday which was the first day in the last week that it even developed it . I wouldn't call that a win at all.


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Not a total win, but do you see the Euro developing the system into a stronger system at that position in any of the runs other than a weak tropical storm? Maybe I missed something?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not a total win, but do you see the Euro developing the system into a stronger system at that position in any of the runs other than a weak tropical storm? Maybe I missed something?
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No I don't SE the euro doing that . but if you look at the last 12 CMc runs it wasn't until 00z Wednesday that it even developed a weak system much less sniffed anything out prior .


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Storm5 said:
No I don't SE the euro doing that . but if you look at the last 12 CMc runs it wasn't until 00z Wednesday that it even developed a weak system much less sniffed anything out prior .


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I wasn't saying the CMC sniffed it out. I was saying the Euro did. What I was saying about the CMC is that because it and the HWRF have developed stronger systems in the last day or two, they are on the right track.
 
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