The one thing I’m fairly confident of is that should there be a stall of ~24 hours while still offshore, the likelihood of significant weakening then would be high. I don’t recall off the top of my head a single instance of a very strong storm like this in the Atlantic stalling or even just slowing down to a crawl not weakening substantially. As I understand it, this is possibly due to a combo of 1) energy being extracted from the top layers of the ocean to feed the storm in the general vicinity of the center....conservation of energy concept (a principle stating that energy cannot be created or destroyed, but can be altered from one form to another) and 2) The rain cooled air for such a long period with no warming sunshine over a larger portion of the ocean (diameter of several hundred miles for this big of a storm) covered by the rain shield, would itself, likely cause cooling of a few degrees on its own. Perhaps these 2 things are interdependent/overlapping to some extent.
So, if it were still a major when this potential 24+ hour slow down and/or stall were to start, I’d bet on a weakening at least down to category 2 and possibly even down to a cat 1 as of the end of the 24 hours. I suppose she could restrengthen some once she started moving again but I wouldn’t expect her to come close to her pre-stall strength if for no other reason that a good portion of her would likely be over land then. The caveat though to the chance for restrengthening much after the weakening is a stall a good bit further offshore than even the 0Z Euro showed. That possibility also needs to be considered since that may be the trend going forward.
In talking about this likely weakening during any prolonged crawling/stalling, I’m not trying to downplay if she were to weaken to a cat 2 or even to a cat 1 as the effects on land would likely still be major all around her wherever she ends up going mainly due to her large size.
Any thoughts? By the way, I realize the waters right over the Gulf Stream would likely remain warmer than surrounding areas, regardless.
(PS, yes I still have reservations just in case)