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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Aug 30, 2018.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Major East Coast threat
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2018
  2. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
     
  3. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    A year later and that is still a stupid designation.
     
  4. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    We are stuck with it unless the NHC finds it useless. At least we won't see it for too long as the GFS has a TS forming fast and it likely will at least be a depression by the next advisory or two.
     
  5. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  6. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Is this the system that is expected to head out to sea?
     
  7. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Yes. The system that could hit the US is in the Carribean.
     
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  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Yes, it's not going to impact any part of land fortunately.
     
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  9. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Thanks, I was also watching the tropical update and some of those other waves behide this PTC 6 are expected to move on a west movement, that would be bad for the US if that happens
     
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  10. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  11. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  12. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  13. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    Well, technically the Cape Verde islands will be impacted but that’s about it. If it stays weak and takes longer to organize than modeled there’s always a chance to but it should recurve safely away from the US.
     
  14. Brent

    Brent Member

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    models have shifted west but I still expect a recurve for now... it's gonna be so far NE already, really hard to get to the US from there

    The GFS does it get close to Bermuda before it goes NE though

    The FV GFS is moving west near Bermuda at day 12 with insane ridging along the EC, summer just doesn't want to go away?
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2018
  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The 0Z GEFS (~20 members) has two camps now split pretty evenly: camp 1 recurves well east while camp 2 makes to it at least 60W with some of those threatening/hitting Bermuda. One of camp 2 actually hits the Delmarva Peninsula of the US east coast. Prior runs had either all or almost all in camp 1 although 1 on the 18Z GEFS hit the US (SC) and 2 on the 6Z threatened the US east coast. Neither of the last 2 EPS (51 members) hit the US. However, regarding the CDN ens (~20 members), 2 from the 12Z and 3 from the 0Z of 24 hours ago hit the CONUS. I haven't seen the new 0z CDN ens yet.
     
  16. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    EPS is evenly split amongst an OTS route, PTC 6/Florence just meandering SE of Bermuda, or getting pushed westward towards the SE US &/or eastern seaboard. Don't write this storm off as a "fish" storm...

    eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_264 (2).png
     
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  17. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    Yeah if PTC 6 continues to take it's time organizing and developing, the chances of it recurving safely away from the US will begin to diminish especially if the ridging builds back in strong like some models are hinting at.
     
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  18. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Yeah it's not organizing as fast as the models expected. Even the GEFS had a few members send it towards the US yesterday.
     
  19. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    6z GFS looks like it's suggesting an East Coast US hit is definitely a possibility.
     
  20. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  21. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    GFS develops this into a hurricane and recurves it.
     
  22. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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  23. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  24. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Not quite as vivid (or explanatory) as can be seen on the link for the water vapor loop up at Post #22, but this does give an nice view of a system getting itself ready to rock 'n roll ...

    hiatlsat_None_anim.gif
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2018
  25. Brent

    Brent Member

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    TD 6 coming at 5pm
     
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  26. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  27. Brent

    Brent Member

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    interestingly not forecast to be a hurricane anymore
     
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  28. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    last year was enough anyways ... time for a break ... :cool:
     
  29. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    GFS/HWRF/Fv3 developed PTC 6 way too quickly and likely still are, a solution somewhere in the middle of the GFS/Euro intensity wise w/ slightly more weight on the euro seems somewhat reasonable. I personally agree that the potential for anything more than a low grade hurricane thru about day 5-6 is fairly low here, thereafter conditions look much more conducive in the subtropics, and yeah there's still a lot of spread in the guidance
     
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  30. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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