Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Aug 30, 2018.
Major East Coast threat
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
A year later and that is still a stupid designation.
We are stuck with it unless the NHC finds it useless. At least we won't see it for too long as the GFS has a TS forming fast and it likely will at least be a depression by the next advisory or two.
Is this the system that is expected to head out to sea?
Yes. The system that could hit the US is in the Carribean.
Yes, it's not going to impact any part of land fortunately.
Thanks, I was also watching the tropical update and some of those other waves behide this PTC 6 are expected to move on a west movement, that would be bad for the US if that happens
Well, technically the Cape Verde islands will be impacted but that’s about it. If it stays weak and takes longer to organize than modeled there’s always a chance to but it should recurve safely away from the US.
models have shifted west but I still expect a recurve for now... it's gonna be so far NE already, really hard to get to the US from there
The GFS does it get close to Bermuda before it goes NE though
The FV GFS is moving west near Bermuda at day 12 with insane ridging along the EC, summer just doesn't want to go away?
The 0Z GEFS (~20 members) has two camps now split pretty evenly: camp 1 recurves well east while camp 2 makes to it at least 60W with some of those threatening/hitting Bermuda. One of camp 2 actually hits the Delmarva Peninsula of the US east coast. Prior runs had either all or almost all in camp 1 although 1 on the 18Z GEFS hit the US (SC) and 2 on the 6Z threatened the US east coast. Neither of the last 2 EPS (51 members) hit the US. However, regarding the CDN ens (~20 members), 2 from the 12Z and 3 from the 0Z of 24 hours ago hit the CONUS. I haven't seen the new 0z CDN ens yet.
EPS is evenly split amongst an OTS route, PTC 6/Florence just meandering SE of Bermuda, or getting pushed westward towards the SE US &/or eastern seaboard. Don't write this storm off as a "fish" storm...
Yeah if PTC 6 continues to take it's time organizing and developing, the chances of it recurving safely away from the US will begin to diminish especially if the ridging builds back in strong like some models are hinting at.
Yeah it's not organizing as fast as the models expected. Even the GEFS had a few members send it towards the US yesterday.
6z GFS looks like it's suggesting an East Coast US hit is definitely a possibility.
GFS develops this into a hurricane and recurves it.
Absolutely beautiful visual of the genesis ... far too large to upload the animation ... and this is time sensitive ... if anyone knows how to get the animation to post, please do so; it would be a nice archive ... but for today, click here ... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-ti...l_colors&prod=natl×pan=120hrs&anim=anigf
Not quite as vivid (or explanatory) as can be seen on the link for the water vapor loop up at Post #22, but this does give an nice view of a system getting itself ready to rock 'n roll ...
TD 6 coming at 5pm
interestingly not forecast to be a hurricane anymore
last year was enough anyways ... time for a break ...
GFS/HWRF/Fv3 developed PTC 6 way too quickly and likely still are, a solution somewhere in the middle of the GFS/Euro intensity wise w/ slightly more weight on the euro seems somewhat reasonable. I personally agree that the potential for anything more than a low grade hurricane thru about day 5-6 is fairly low here, thereafter conditions look much more conducive in the subtropics, and yeah there's still a lot of spread in the guidance