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Pattern Magnificent March

I'm almost 50.. I've seen one utterly incredible March, the rest, meh. But damn, that one time... so amazing. Yeah, you know which March I'm talkin' 'bout.
 
whamby said:
I'm almost 50.. I've seen one utterly incredible March, the rest, meh. But damn, that one time... so amazing. Yeah, you know which March I'm talkin' 'bout.
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Well I ve got you + 10, and I ve seen 5 crazy ones
Winter 1983, and 1993
Severe 1975, 1998,and 2008
 
gawxnative said:
Well I ve got you + 10, and I ve seen 5 crazy ones
Winter 1983, and 1993
Severe 1975, 1998,and 2008
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yeah, for some reason GA seems to fair better in nutty Marches... Knoxville northeast into the mountains is another story... I gauge my March love on snow/cold not severe. I hate tornadoes personally. Just my little quirk. I grew up in central Texas and spent an entire childhood in fear/awe of massive tornadic thunderstorms. And April 2011 cured me of my last vestige of interest in that weather phenomenon.
 
whamby said:
yeah, for some reason GA seems to fair better in nutty Marches... Knoxville northeast into the mountains is another story... I gauge my March love on snow/cold not severe. I hate tornadoes personally. Just my little quirk. I grew up in central Texas and spent an entire childhood in fear/awe of massive tornadic thunderstorms. And April 2011 cured me of my last vestige of interest in that weather phenomenon.
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March is a vilotale month. But I gauge it on severe weather it’s spring met. Month.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Give me a -EPO and a -NAO in winter and I will take my chances.
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A +PNA has a significantly stronger correlation
to SE cold, especially in FL and GA, than the less reliable -EPO, which has a correlation to cold that is stronger in the Midwest than in the SE. Keep this in mind: the EPO has been negative all month and is projected to remain that way through 2/23. Yet, we're having the first or second warmest Feb since 1879 in much of the SE! That wouldn't be the case with a +PNA, which we don't have this month. It will end up a pretty solid -PNA.

Give me a +PNA with anything and I will take my chances.
 
GaWx said:
A +PNA has a significantly stronger correlation
to SE cold, especially in FL and GA, than the less reliable -EPO, which has a correlation to cold that is stronger in the Midwest than in the SE. Keep this in mind: the EPO has been negative all month and is projected to remain that way through 2/23. Yet, we're having the first or second warmest Feb since 1879 in much of the SE! That wouldn't be the case with a +PNA, which we don't have this month. It will end up a pretty solid -PNA.

Give me a +PNA with anything and I will take my chances.
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1000+ "Likes" ... :cool:
 
2012, 2016, 2017 were all positive +PNA winters and were blowtorches. +PNA by itself doesn't always equal cold for the southeast, far from it.

cd173.38.117.73.48.9.46.52.prcp.png
 
Kylo said:
2012, 2016, 2017 were all positive +PNA winters and were blowtorches. +PNA by itself doesn't always equal cold for the southeast, far from it.

View attachment 4072
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No single index is anywhere near always correlated to SE cold. I'm talking overall correlation based on data going back to 1950 as opposed to it always meaning a cold SE. This isn't just me saying this. This is what the data says. On average, a +PNA has been more correlated to SE cold than a -EPO. A west coast ridge is much more often than not a good thing if you want cold. Some -EPOs don't also have a +PNA ridge. A -EPO
is more highly correlated to a cold Midwest than it is to a cold SE. OTOH, a +PNA is more highly correlated to a cold SE than it is to a cold Midwest.
Keep in mind that I'm talking averages of all of the winters since 1950-1.
 
Off the charts.
2b41ef972f4184faca143de0bfa347c6.jpg

8fa50cfd098c363e1634945b2d0c73d2.jpg



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Jon said:
Off the charts.
2b41ef972f4184faca143de0bfa347c6.jpg

8fa50cfd098c363e1634945b2d0c73d2.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Jon,

What's the AO doing in that same time period based on your sources?
What I'm seeing is also deep diving.
That could be a good tandem.
Thanks!
Phil
 
Looks like we torch until early March for now, and there is indeed a trend colder. 6Z GEFS looked like a good cooldown. Question is, when will it actually happen and will it lock in? I'm just going to wait until early March.
 
pcbjr said:
Jon,

What's the AO doing in that same time period based on your sources?
What I'm seeing is also deep diving.
That could be a good tandem.
Thanks!
Phil
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Yep. Based on the evolution of this strong west based -NAO it would have no choice but to tank beforehand
0c35466e2b9f4b46f483ead81f268f3d.jpg

f52092df4743e3acd8c03367f416f5aa.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
Off the charts.
2b41ef972f4184faca143de0bfa347c6.jpg

8fa50cfd098c363e1634945b2d0c73d2.jpg
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Does anyone know or does it bother anyone why these WxBell charts show the op GFS and Euro models day 10 forecasts with a -4 to -5 NAO and yet the GEFS forecast mean is down to only -0.70? Furthermore, the most negative member of said ensemble is down only to about -1.7. Something is way off.
 
GaWx said:
No single index is anywhere near always correlated to SE cold. I'm talking overall correlation based on data going back to 1950 as opposed to it always meaning a cold SE. This isn't just me saying this. This is what the data says. On average, a +PNA has been more correlated to SE cold than a -EPO. A west coast ridge is much more often than not a good thing if you want cold. Some -EPOs don't also have a +PNA ridge. A -EPO
is more highly correlated to a cold Midwest than it is to a cold SE. OTOH, a +PNA is more highly correlated to a cold SE than it is to a cold Midwest.
Keep in mind that I'm talking averages of all of the winters since 1950-1.
Click to expand...

Agreed, no single index. There are multiple combinations that drive cold into the SE, a +PNA doesn’t always equal cold nor does a -NAO. But a -PNA doesn’t always mean warm and snowless. We all remember Feb 2014, great event with a -PNA.
 
GaWx said:
Does anyone know or does it bother anyone why these WxBell charts show the op GFS and Euro models day 10 forecasts with a -4 to -5 NAO and yet the GEFS forecast mean is down to only -0.70? Furthermore, the most negative member of said ensemble is down only to about -1.7. Something is way off.
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Did you clear your cache Larry? Ens mean is almost -5 here...
044bb67a018bae9d9eccc6c7d70ecd46.jpg


Here’s 00z GEFS from NOAA, -4
6532dbbdb38c6d048ad85b5a7eebe2e6.jpg


And weatherbell 00z GEFS....
32049a3420063c09b4b54e3e7e297688.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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