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Pattern Magnificent March

Joe Bastardi says what he wants to say. That's not to discredit him as a met because he does have knowledge but his free stuff is pretty much he's trying to look for a way to try to forecast a major winter for the northeast, every single time.

I don't know if Bastardi is affiliated with Accuweather anymore but I got more from listening to Frank Strait's thoughts from there a while back.

Edit: That's not to endorse accuweather as I don't. The fact they have very long range in their forecasts is ridiculous. Part of the reason I mostly stopped looking at it.
 
Clayton said:
Would this do anything to tamper any El Nino chances or renew La Nina strength, etc? I really don't want a Super Strong El Nino to mess up winter again if there is one coming if other forcing, etc. aligns. By the way, JB was already wayyyy ahead of you with the El Nino potential. Granted he may say that every other winter if not every winter, but you gotta admit he suspected it coming before you did, I assume based off pattern recognition, because he just as good in that department, if not better, than you.
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Lol yeah ok, Joe Bastardi has no idea what he's doing he calls for a modoki El Niño every year, we don't even really know if there's going to be a NINO much less if it will be of this type. Then he made up some bs about how a increase in sunspots resulted in stronger and long lives Pacific MJO event but provided no explanation, he doesn't know what's going on and almost no one in the met community takes him seriously. Even a broken clock is right twice a day
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Not really surprising to see Spring kick into full gear in mid/late February during a La Nina winter. As great as 2010/2011 was, after Atlanta got it's last measurable snow on February 9th(?), 2011, Winter came to a grinding halt and Severe Weather Season raged in on steroids.
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True, after that storm here in Columbia around early Jan 2011, Winter was basically over after that.
 
E9599F53-253F-459C-A7BB-6EA825419A99.png 29B9F990-8E42-4352-B5E4-BB8DA06FC8EE.png Well, we got this to look forward to! We all new it was coming!
 
We wait all winter for a -NAO and this is the crap we get:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_49.png
What a joke.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol yeah ok, Joe Bastardi has no idea what he's doing he calls for a modoki El Niño every year, we don't even really know if there's going to be a NINO much less if it will be of this type. Then he made up some bs about how a increase in sunspots resulted in stronger and long lives Pacific MJO event but provided no explanation, he doesn't know what's going on and almost no one in the met community takes him seriously. Even a broken clock is right twice a day
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Yeah, you're right about that haha. But you gotta admit he has some skill in what he does, I've observed that he can be skilled at pattern recognition, and debunking model forecasts that make no sense. So I wouldn't totally discredit or underestimate him, just be wary of that. He has far more meteorology years under his belt than you, and I assume he's amassed great wisdom over the years. But I do admit that the excuse he gave about MJO speed and sunspots was crazy and with no explanation. It was pretty hilarious tbh hahaha.
 
1300m said:
Not to derail this thread too much, but I do not like seeing statements like this. 1) Greg Fishel and many other meteorologists have 20+ years more forecast experience than I do, but I don't consider them better forecasters than myself. When it comes to winter events, the cold hard facts is more times than not I get it right over them. And so does Webber and many others. 2) I have many more years of meteorology under my belt than Webb, but he has still taught me things this year about the MJO that I did not know. Just because someone has 30 years of experience doing something the wrong way in no way, shape, or form makes them better than someone else. This is not meant as an attack against you, but just an argument against that line of thinking, which I see a lot when folks reference NWS forecasts or professional forecasts in general.
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And well just to fully derail this thread (let's face it the wheels were coming off anyway lol) I'll take this just a step further and say the notion of someone being better or more "suited" for anything because of the years of experience far transcends just the meteorology world. I see it all the time in the work force, "so and so" should have got that job they have x number of years, never mind they can barely read and write, fail to show up to work on time, etc etc... Lol I'm sorry but I'm glad you gave your rebuttal it's a pet peeve of mine. Years of experience do not always equal expertise that's for sure.

Sorry guys (and gals) carry on....
 
metwannabe said:
And well just to fully derail this thread (let's face it the wheels were coming off anyway lol) I'll take this just a step further and say the notion of someone being better or more "suited" for anything because of the years of experience far transcends just the meteorology world. I see it all the time in the work force, "so and so" should have got that job they have x number of years, never mind they can barely read and write, fail to show up to work on time, etc etc... Lol I'm sorry but I'm glad you gave your rebuttal it's a pet peeve of mine. Years of experience do not always equal expertise that's for sure.

Sorry guys (and gals) carry on....
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I get what you guys are saying. I'm just saying don't always try to discredit JB or down him all the time. He has cold and snowy biases just like some or most of us and it sometimes clouds his judgment maybe. He's human and makes mistakes. No one truly knows what the weather is going to do 100%of the time. It's too complex and sometimes you have to go by experience. He has his strengths in certain areas, and weaknesses just like any one of us does
 
1300m said:
Not to derail this thread too much, but I do not like seeing statements like this. 1) Greg Fishel and many other meteorologists have 20+ years more forecast experience than I do, but I don't consider them better forecasters than myself. When it comes to winter events, the cold hard facts is more times than not I get it right over them. And so does Webber and many others. 2) I have many more years of meteorology under my belt than Webb, but he has still taught me things this year about the MJO that I did not know. Just because someone has 30 years of experience doing something the wrong way in no way, shape, or form makes them better than someone else. This is not meant as an attack against you, but just an argument against that line of thinking, which I see a lot when folks reference NWS forecasts or professional forecasts in general.
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metwannabe said:
And well just to fully derail this thread (let's face it the wheels were coming off anyway lol) I'll take this just a step further and say the notion of someone being better or more "suited" for anything because of the years of experience far transcends just the meteorology world. I see it all the time in the work force, "so and so" should have got that job they have x number of years, never mind they can barely read and write, fail to show up to work on time, etc etc... Lol I'm sorry but I'm glad you gave your rebuttal it's a pet peeve of mine. Years of experience do not always equal expertise that's for sure.

Sorry guys (and gals) carry on....
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Fabulous ... the only word befitting ... Thanks!
;)
 
GaWx said:
An Aleutian trough is normally much more conducive to SE cold as the trough teleconnects well to a PNA/west coast ridge. Therefore, I'm generally not a fan of Aleutian ridges.
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Larry,
Barring a miracle, you and I are on to spring (regrettably). I have to be in Haile late on Monday afternoon and plan on stopping by Vet's Park around 7:00 PM on my way back to north Alachua County; I'll give the grounds your best when I do a walk!
Best!
Phil
 
GaWx said:
An Aleutian trough is normally much more conducive to SE cold as the trough teleconnects well to a PNA/west coast ridge. Therefore, I'm generally not a fan of Aleutian ridges.
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We know you like that +PNA, we all do :)

But, -PNA/-NAO has produced over the years, well for Raleigh atleast. With a -PNA a poleward aleutian ridge is welcome.

Agree though, preferably would like a +PNA/-EPO coupled with -NAO. Though, still prefer a -NAO/-PNA over a +NAO/+PNA.
 
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Off the top of my head, these are 5 events that -NAO/-PNA that were solid snow events for central NC. Poleward building aleutian ridge connected to -NAO.
AD92D5AC-4327-49C1-B363-C28BFE8A2C38.gif
 
PNA is tanking and a -NAO, standing alone, is at best going to block and lock seasonal air ...
 
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Should be an interesting test of the indices as the PNA looks to go largely negative while the NAO and AO also go negative around the 1st of March, while the MJO looks questionable as to whether is stays in 7 or drifts into 8. Will be a variable time for sure
 
Clayton said:
I get what you guys are saying. I'm just saying don't always try to discredit JB or down him all the time. He has cold and snowy biases just like some or most of us and it sometimes clouds his judgment maybe. He's human and makes mistakes. No one truly knows what the weather is going to do 100%of the time. It's too complex and sometimes you have to go by experience. He has his strengths in certain areas, and weaknesses just like any one of us does
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I would like to see the personal attacks on JB be canned. If folks want to refute him then use your intellect and education. If you're an armchair quarterback and just say he doesnt know or yada, yada without making your case for the opposite then why even say anything?

It's always disappointing to see it get personal when there is absolutely no need.

Just my 1/2 penny..
 
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