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Pattern Magnificent March

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by GaWx, Feb 13, 2018.

  1. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Have at it! The magnificent March posts are already cluttering the Ferocious Feb thread.
     
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  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    I think it's cursed. Positive names lead to disappointment!
     
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  3. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    March 1960 FTW!
     
  4. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    06Z accumulated rainfall through 3/1 Showing lots of beneficial heavy rain
     
  5. dsaur

    dsaur Supporter Member

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    I've always regretted not having a kite to fly during the Bliz :) Some good ripstop with graphite struts, gov grade nylon cord, and 75 mph plus winds...man, oh, man, with a big enough kite I could fly, lol. Maybe this March is my second chance! Something is coming because everything is budding out, and that's tempting the fates..shaking their plant butts at old man winter...not smart in the middle of Feb, no matter how the models look. Of course, I've seen it work out for the plants in recent winters, but the new climate norms will include big swings...so I think plants shaking their fannies at winter in Feb is hubris.
     
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  6. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    He has officially moved to March [​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
     
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  7. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    "Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
     
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  8. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Why does anyone listen to this guy...


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  9. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    I can't wait until next year when he starts chirping "December to remember", then "Oh well, January and February will make up for it".. Then come mid-January, he will start singing "Cold and stormy February... winter delayed but not denied"... It's like a broken record
     
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  10. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    W
     
  11. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    [​IMG]

    sign me up
     
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  12. Rain Cold

    Rain Cold Target Snow Shields and Fire! Member

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    Agreed. We need the rain.
     
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  13. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    He’s going with the Pioneer model!
     
  14. tractor girl

    tractor girl Member

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    530-90_itsatrap.jpg
     
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  15. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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  16. tennessee storm

    tennessee storm Member

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    Yep looking stormy wet wild March should be title. .... but we but got to much rain here ....
     
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  17. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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  18. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    This is most likely a better explain for the MJO's speed and/or is getting at the root cause(s). MJO speed can be dictated by a plethora of variables, projection onto the RMM's principal components is one, a big one is advection by the background flow (for example during La Ninas with a weaker, less extensive Pacific Jet like we observed in this case, (remember the lack of jet extension I mentioned a few weeks ago?) the slower jet advects the MJO less quickly into the W hem & via versa during El Niño), the amount of convection can also influence MJO phase speed since convection is often co-located within and in the wake of most convectively coupled equatorial waves, more convection will slow the MJO down, but there's a limit on how intense the convection can become. It's also possible that the movement of the MJO into the descending branch of the Walker Cell and the sudden stratospheric warming event could be influencing the distribution & intensity of convection associated with the MJO and the plethora of CC waves that comprise it
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018
  19. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    I hope so! The bass are biting!
     
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  20. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Bring on the severe weather
     
  21. tractor girl

    tractor girl Member

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    Not sure if I should "like", but yeah....
     
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  22. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    EPS is following suit here in a general sense, regardless ooks like we may have a window for one last storm in the upper south in the first week-10 days of March or so. I'd preferably like to see the Aleutian ridge get squelched a little more but beggars can't be choosers
    gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png
    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png
     
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  23. Jon

    Jon Member

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    Amazing similarities between the pattern change Late Feb/Early March 1962 to what’s occurring on the ensembles:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Last frame of the GEFS (March 2) vs March 5-10 1962 average anomaly:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    1962 had a very strong -NAO for March
    [​IMG]

    The historic east coast storm of March 1962 had me hesitant to mention it as an analog (didn’t want to hype) but I’ll let y’all decide


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  24. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    After two days near 80, they may be on the beds Saturday! :eek:
     
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  25. sigwx

    sigwx Supporter Member

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    Not yet but those big girls are getting ready:rolleyes:

    I have a Bass tournament this weekend. I will let you know!!!
     
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  26. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Oh....[​IMG]

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  27. NorthBamaWeather

    NorthBamaWeather Member

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  28. Jon

    Jon Member

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    Obvious pattern change is obvious. Hold on.


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  29. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    But isn't winter dead and buried?
     
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  30. Avalanche

    Avalanche Member

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    Yes looks and feels that way
     
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