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Pattern Magnificent March

The Canadian model has gotten red hot of late, almost beating the European in the medium range. The GFS on the other hand is pure garbage and had the largest drop out of all the models the last 30 days.
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deltadog03 said:
I think if we get some blocking and we actually get out of phase 8 there might be a 2 week period or so of March where we can throw a Hail Mary.
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It would have to be a ULL. Lots of places and people who have already punted winter. Should be more snow for the rest of us.
 
Here's today's NCEP GEFS NAO update: mean going for an initial dip to between -1 and -2 around 3/1/18, a solid -NAO with individual members as low as -2:

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Per 12Z GFS, the SE finally gets a day that isn't warmer than normal on 3/1 (NC) or 3/2 (most others)! Celebration time!
 
Day 10 trends has GEFS really driving the NAO block further south and west. -EPO getting stronger.

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GaWx said:
Per 12Z GFS, the SE finally gets a day that isn't warmer than normal on 3/1 (NC) or 3/2 (most others)! Celebration time!
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Having one of those today. Sitting at 46 currently. Probably be the last one this week. runing +4 for the month of FEB
 
Lol legit
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ForsythSnow said:
Sounds like we aren't spending time in phases 8-2, which likely means less favorability for cold air.
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We are spending time in those phases as we speak and I'm saying the -NAO will help push the MJO right along into phase 2-3. The OLR, upper level circulation anomalies, and lower-level zonal winds are clearly in the Eastern Pacific-Western Hemisphere (phase 8) right now. The plethora of southwestern Pacific TCs, rossby wave breaking in the East Pacific and sudden stratospheric warming have held the MJO back in phase 7 and projected onto U200 EOFs.
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The upward branch of the MJO's upper level circulation is centered over South America & Africa (Phase 8-1)
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Webberweather53 said:
We are spending time in those phases as we speak and I'm saying the -NAO will help push the MJO right along into phase 2-3. The OLR, upper level circulation anomalies, and lower-level zonal winds are clearly in the Eastern Pacific-Western Hemisphere (phase 8) right now. The plethora of southwestern Pacific TCs, rossby wave breaking in the East Pacific and sudden stratospheric warming have held the MJO back in phase 7 and projected onto U200 EOFs.
View attachment 4090

The upward branch of the MJO's upper level circulation is centered over South America & Africa (Phase 8-1)
View attachment 4091
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We never thought MJO was going to spend 30 days in phase 7. Just cause models show it blasting through 8,1,2 into 3, doesn’t mean it will!
 
The 12Z EPS is quite a bit colder than the prior run in the SE 3/3-5 with colder than normal vs the prior run's near normal to warmer than normal 3/3-5. Keep in mind that the EPS is warm biased, especially that far out.
 
As GaWx posted above the EPS was quite a run for the first week of March. -EPO really gets going to couple with the NAO.
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