Pattern Jarring January

[NorthBamaWeather]

I'm laying this here saying here comes our first real severe threat. 10 days away, I'm calling it. Start the thread . It has a good setup unfortunately with mid to upper 60s and dewpoints up there as well.

This is when the pattern changes back to Winter... Very legitiment threat

 

[CentralGAColdFront]

I would suggest that we don't make a generalized severe weather thread, but do always appreciate whenever we have individualized specific event severe weather related threads.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

I quickly learned that in the time I lived over there. The only cold wind direction is NE, any southerly wind obviously doesn't bring in cold air, and N & NW is downsloping air that has been severely modified because of the smokies.

One interesting observation from last week though was the front and disturbance that brought ice to Memphis and points north, that front was oriented almost 90 degrees because of the waves along it, hence ice on the backside vs snow. When the front passed by our winds shifted WSW and actually brought the cold air in from that direction. It was a rare occurrence that doesn't happen very often bringing the cold air south of the apps, then east.

JC, are you still in Marietta or did you move? The Smoky Mountains are to your NE. To your NW is the remaining Appalachian Mtns. that run through NE Alabama and you have a lot of valleys and a few mountains to your North. You are not downsloping in Marietta with a N/NW flow but it is, in general, a dry flow.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Overrunning still works for everyone here in my opinion (well, almost everyone), it's just the catch is you could start as something other than snow if you are in the SC midlands (or here, for that matter).

 

[Arcc]

I'm laying this here saying here comes our first real severe threat. 10 days away, I'm calling it. Start the thread . It has a good setup unfortunately with mid to upper 60s and dewpoints up there as well.

Looks like a garbage low cape squall line to me at least right now.

 

[Storm5]

How about them damn weeklies !!! -EPO for the win!

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[GaWx]

Folks, Gainesville, FL, has plunged to 28 at 10 PM!

Edit: Dewpoint holding at 23. I earlier predicted a low of 19-20. Let's see if the dewpoint later falls with the temp. I've seen that happen there on several occasions when radiation is strong and am obviously expecting that.

 

[pcbjr]

Folks, Gainesville, FL, has plunged to 28 at 10 PM!

Edit: Dewpoint holding at 23. I earlier predicted a low of 19-20. Let's see if the dewpoint later falls with the temp. I've seen that happen there on several occasions when radiation is strong and am obviously expecting that.

It's getting a bit chilly ... was this AM as as well ...

 

[accu35]

One thing i look for to in spring time is my Lemon tree buisness. Things are set to go, my first few hundred will hopefully be ready by late spring early summer. Im in Zone 8 so that makes a whole new differents in growing my trees in the south.

 

[pcbjr]

Gainesville has fallen a typically impressive 13 degrees in just the last 2 hours to 37. It I were there, I undoubtedly would have been walking Veterans' Memorial Park during the rapid drop.

The dewpoint, as is typical during evening radiation, has risen. It rose from 14 to 22 the last 2 hours. I don't expect it to rise much more. As a matter of fact, it will often fall back a few degrees with the temperature late at night. So, I'm sticking with my 19-20 forecast.

Edit: now down to 34 at 8PM.

Larry,
Since 5:30 - been at a CLE on jury selection and just got in and am catching up; good Gainesville posts. Veteran's Park misses your footsteps on an evening like this, I'm sure ...
Thanks for keeping me in mind!
Best!
Phil

 

[Shawn]

I don't see anything severe with that GFS image above. Heavy rain, squall line? Eh; not a true outbreak at 500mb.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yeah remember that 12z CMC CAD Ice storm? 00z says "Ain't happening"

 

[Taylor C]

Looks like a garbage low cape squall line to me at least right now.

EURO much better with instability. GFS, and EURO both showing system.

 

[dsaur]

Folks, Gainesville, FL, has plunged to 28 at 10 PM!

Edit: Dewpoint holding at 23. I earlier predicted a low of 19-20. Let's see if the dewpoint later falls with the temp. I've seen that happen there on several occasions when radiation is strong and am obviously expecting that.

I'm just at 28 at near 1am, and just up the road it's still 31.... and with the high further down, and closer to Phil, I bet he drops lower than I do.

 

[accu35]

We probably gonna have to wait to reload end of month into February to see at least 1 more winterstorm
.

 

[gawxnative]

Well the Weekend warm up has started... Wind shift back to SW and temps rising during early am... To be honest, looking forward to getting some outside "chores" done...lol

 

[MBell]

I’ll be glad it’s going to be warm enough to take the Christmas decor down this weekend. Only I’ll be in Nashville visiting a friend all weekend lol. Oh well.


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[Arcc]

Been a cold few days. My lows were 8, 13 and 14 degrees over the last three days.

Still watching next week. All models except for the Euro have the s/w. The Euro wants to bury it in the SW, while the GFS/CMC are still too flat. The ICON is by still by far the most robust with the trough and isn't far from being something pretty good.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Let's get hit by this asteroid NASA says is coming Feb 3 and go into a mini ice age. Anyone on board?

 

[accu35]

Radar out west in Texas is on the move. Be very interesting if some of that precip could make it the over night hrs with my temps in the upper 20s. Very light precip and no short range or global has this frozen. Just something to watch on radar.