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Pattern Jarring January

Goofy still has some cad late in the week/weekend. That's what I'm keying on. Let it decide which batch of rain it wants to move into it.
 
Storm5 said:
Gfs, cmc, icon and ukmet all have the same general idea next week. Lots of temp talk lol marginal events can be the best events
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Exactly, temps really aren't that bad even with what the models currently have. I'm not even talking about with wetbulbing and CAA, or farther northern stream involvement. The massive southern paste bombs are always marginal temp wise and have to rely on evaporative or dynamic cooling.
 
Without much ensemble support for a low in the Gulf tracking favorably for the Midlands of SC (with a high in the ne) throughout the entire period, I will punt the rest of January for this area in most likelihood.

If I learned anything over the past couple of events here, is Columbia just can not get a Winter Storm Warning type of event without a High in the Northeast, anchored down, while a low spawns in the Gulf of Mexico, tracking across NorthCentral Florida slightly up the coast.
 
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Storm5 said:
There is some wow support for precip in the southeast around next Thursday and Friday. Haven't looked deep into it but it's not like it's zero. And let be real the ensembles were horrible with this last system post day 4

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Exactly! The globals suck , and Long range NAM was first to pick up on the more moist threat. The Euro did well at about 3-4 days out, GFS picked it up about 1 day out , lol. Don't think next week pans out. We've lost a lot of super cold air in Canada , maybe the Midwest bomb and tstorms this early week, can pull enough down for this late week threat!
 
Storm5 said:
There is some wow support for precip in the southeast around next Thursday and Friday. Haven't looked deep into it but it's not like it's zero. And let be real the ensembles were horrible with this last system post day 4

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That is true. Skimmed through gefs briefly and there are some that bring precip well in land with gulf lows.
 
Shawn said:
Without much ensemble support for a low in the Gulf tracking favorably for the Midlands of SC (with a high in the ne) throughout the entire period, I will punt the rest of January for this area in most likelihood.

If I learned anything over the past couple of events here, is Columbia just can not get a Winter Storm Warning type of event without a High in the Northeast, anchored down, while a low spawns in the Gulf of Mexico, tracking across NorthCentral Florida slightly up the coast.
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I quickly learned that in the time I lived over there. The only cold wind direction is NE, any southerly wind obviously doesn't bring in cold air, and N & NW is downsloping air that has been severely modified because of the smokies.

One interesting observation from last week though was the front and disturbance that brought ice to Memphis and points north, that front was oriented almost 90 degrees because of the waves along it, hence ice on the backside vs snow. When the front passed by our winds shifted WSW and actually brought the cold air in from that direction. It was a rare occurrence that doesn't happen very often bringing the cold air south of the apps, then east.
 
Storm5 said:
There is some support for precip in the southeast around next Thursday and Friday. Haven't looked deep into it but it's not like it's zero. And lets be real the ensembles were horrible with this last system post day 4

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I'll take that look next week any day. We don't necessarily need exceptional cold air in place with a favorable storm track such as this, especially in the mountains. Although if it did happen, it would be incredibly wet snow with horrible ratios.
 
Yeah right a shortwave from California can totally produce a winter storm this weak. Didn't we all just emphasize the importance of the 500 vort?
gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

Now the ICON is doable and truly is close. If we see some runs on other models like that and if the ICON keep showing this I may get interested if we get normal trends. It would slow down as we approach verification and also gain a positive tilt. All we needed on that run was a nice positive tilt earlier and it would have been nice.
icon_z500_vort_us_58.png
 
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