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Pattern Jarring January

ForsythSnow said:
Yeah right a shortwave from California can totally produce a winter storm this weak. Didn't we all just emphasize the importance of the 500 vort?
gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

Now the ICON is doable and truly is close. If we see some runs on other models like that and if the ICON keep showing this I may get interested if we get normal trends. It would slow down as we approach verification and also gain a positive tilt. All we needed on that run was a nice positive tilt earlier and it would have been nice.
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If anything close to that ICON verifies and produces winter, it will defy damn near every classic text book odd in publication ... o_O
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Yeah right a shortwave from California can totally produce a winter storm this weak. Didn't we all just emphasize the importance of the 500 vort?
gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

Now the ICON is doable and truly is close. If we see some runs on other models like that and if the ICON keep showing this I may get interested if we get normal trends. It would slow down as we approach verification and also gain a positive tilt. All we needed on that run was a nice positive tilt earlier and it would have been nice.
icon_z500_vort_us_58.png
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According to Webb, the fact it's coming into CA , is a win, and most of our best winter storms have to enter CA, now the magical cold appearance , may be harder to reason. :(
 
accu35 said:
Larry, there talk and concerns of a possible cross polar vortex in February, whst do you know about that and the chances of it happening for the lower 48s. Plus - 80ish in Russian could have something to do with it?
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I know nothing about it, accu. Also, I've seen no proof that extreme cold in Russia correlates to any significant degree to later cold in the lower 48. Sometimes it means the coldest is locked over there, which wouldn't favor cold here at all.
 
Gainesville, FL, had a 21 low! That's the coldest there since Feb of 2012, when it was 20! Way to go, Gainesville! And that had no help from radiation. That was pretty purely from advection.
That city's climate is so much colder than most of FL, obviously.
 
Tarheel1 said:
According to Webb, the fact it's coming into CA , is a win, and most of our best winter storms have to enter CA, now the magical cold appearance , may be harder to reason. :(
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Models are struggling with cold in the LR. Frozen meteor smoke will save us?
 
Arcc said:
Not gonna happen on 18z run.
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It's still there . Supression is still good, we've got to get NW trend on atleast one storm this winter, right?
 
MBell said:
Colder tonight for you down there in Gainesville? I was hoping to hit the singles again last night but the wind kept up and prevented that.
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It wouldn't shock me if Gainesville, FL, is even colder tonight than last night's 21 based on its history. With good radiational cooling conditions expected and current dewpoint, which though it will warm up some tonight, of 14, I'm betting on slightly colder there tonight....say 19-20! Looking back at some of Gainesville's coldest nights, many were the 2nd night of cold snaps because they radiate like a champ. Many areas that don't radiate well will likely be warmer tonight
 
GaWx said:
It wouldn't shock me if Gainesville, FL, is even colder tonight than last night's 21 based on its history. With good radiational cooling conditions expected and current dewpoint, which though it will warm up some tonight, of 14, I'm betting on slightly colder there tonight....say 19-20! Looking back at some of Gainesville's coldest nights, many were the 2nd night of cold snaps because they radiate like a champ. Many areas that don't radiate well will likely be warmer tonight
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I usually radiate quite well under the right conditions. Tonight the wind looks much calmer and with dews still around 9 to 10 I could see the best radiating areas getting colder than forecast tonight. Will be interesting to follow. Plus still snow on the ground to aid in that. Almost back below freezing here...made it to 35 earlier.


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MBell said:
I usually radiate quite well under the right conditions. Tonight the wind looks much calmer and with dews still around 9 to 10 I could see the best radiating areas getting colder than forecast tonight. Will be interesting to follow. Plus still snow on the ground to aid in that. Almost back below freezing here...made it to 35 earlier.
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Gainesville has fallen a typically impressive 13 degrees in just the last 2 hours to 37. It I were there, I undoubtedly would have been walking Veterans' Memorial Park during the rapid drop.

The dewpoint, as is typical during evening radiation, has risen. It rose from 14 to 22 the last 2 hours. I don't expect it to rise much more. As a matter of fact, it will often fall back a few degrees with the temperature late at night. So, I'm sticking with my 19-20 forecast.

Edit: now down to 34 at 8PM.
 
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pcbjr said:
PNA is negative, MJO is way on the right, NAO is positive, AO looks like it may rise ... models struggling with cold? The eastern CONUS likely will be struggling with finding cold for a while ... o_O
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In all fairness , we've been hearing torch is coming since End of Dec,. So we will see if this one finally happens
 
First of all Wow! What a first 1/2 of met winter! 6 1/2" of snow total in MBY in 2 events (I average 2" per winter). Several days not making it above freezing (I probably average 1 a winter), and several nights in the teens thus far. If we flipped for good and the rest of the winter was mild/warm, it would still end as a great winter for me!

As we look forward, let's consider a few things.

1.) The indices that we always look to for signals of cold and snow were not exactly off the chart cold signals during the last 6 weeks of storms and MBN temps. PNA was positive, but never more than +1. AO was back and forth between + and - since 12/1 averaging out at near 0 since 12/1. The NAO has never gone negative since 12/1 and is actually been at about a +1.5 over the last few very wintery days. While I would much rather have a favorable MJO than not, I can't tell you how many times over the years I have heard that the upcoming weather was going to do this or that because of the impending MJO, only for the actual expected weather to never materialize.
2.) The computer models: Many times this winter, models have called for very warm in the LR only for it to not verify or be a very transient warm up. They projected LR warm ups often back off as it gets closer to verification time.
3.) La Nina: This is a weak La NIna. I heard often in Nov and Dec. that this or that would happen because it is a La Nina. Weak La Ninas can often produce very good winters as this year is proving. One thing that I do think is possible is that we warm up for a couple weeks, but when cold comes back to the east, it is not as deep and it is not as cold in the deep south as it is further north. That is probably my biggest fear for the next 2 months that it flips back to cold in Feb, but the cold does not really make it this far south. However, this winter has over performed thus far. Maybe it continues to do so.

Regardless of what happens the next 2 months, the 2017-18 winter will go down as one of the best of the 26 I have spent in GA. I hope many of the rest of you have enjoyed the snow and cold as much as I have!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm laying this here saying here comes our first real severe threat. 10 days away, I'm calling it. Start the thread :p. It has a good setup unfortunately with mid to upper 60s and dewpoints up there as well.
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Do you think we need to get a thread going for Severe Weather Season 2018? ...the gfs looks to be coming alive with thunderstorms.
 
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