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Pattern January thread part deux

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SoutheastRidge said:
Well we have about 3 1/2 weeks until winter is typically done here in the south. If we don't get anything by Feb 15, it's over 90% of the time.
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I'll just talk about major winter storms at Atlanta right here. Out of 39 major SN/IP at ATL, 27 occurred fully on or before 2/15. 12 occurred on 2/16+, which is nearly 30% of them.

I looked at major SN./IP at ATL during just weak La Nina or neutral ENSO. I found 17 of them. Out of those 17, 5 occurred 2/16+. Again nearly 30% of them.

Major ZR's are different : 27 of the 31 occurred before 2/16 leaving only 13% for them for 2/16+. All 4 post 2/15 were actually in March oddly enough. 3 of them were during neutral ENSO..

Major ZR's just during WLN or neutral: a whopping 22 of the 31. Of these 22, 3 occurred after 2/15 (14% of them)

In summary in terms of major ZR chances at ATL, I think Monsieur Carrollton is close. But in terms of major ATL SN/IP chances, he's too pessimistic as it is more like only 70% done, not 90%.
 
There's no sense in giving up on a major winter storm chance before, say, ~2/18. At ATL, there have been a whopping 12 of the 68 total major winter storms I could find occuring just during 2/10-18! That's 18% of them just during that 9 day period there! That 9 day period is only 8% of the days that I count from 12/2 through 3/25, the period of major ATL winter storms. So, the daily frequency of major winter storms during 2/10-18 there has been almost 3 times the daily frequency during the rest of the period 12/2-3/25!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Well we have about 3 1/2 weeks until winter is typically done here in the south. If we don't get anything by Feb 15, it's over 90% of the time.
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I don't ever give up on winter until the second week of March has come and gone. Of course I'm farther north then most but I still wouldn't be putting a fork in winter a week before January has ended unless I was in north Florida.
 
GaWx said:
There's no sense in giving up on a major winter storm chance before, say, ~2/18. At ATL, there have been a whopping 12 of the 68 total major winter storms I could find occuring just during 2/10-18! That's 18% of them just during that 9 day period there! That 9 day period is only 8% of the days that I count from 12/2 through 3/25, the period of major ATL winter storms. So, the daily frequency of major winter storms during 2/10-18 there has been almost 3 times the daily frequency during the rest of the period 12/2-3/25!
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So when I said winter is done by 2/15 90% of the time, maybe I should have just said 2/19 instead ?
 
Is it even severe weather season ? It seems like it is. I wonder if all of this severe weather in January is a sign of what is to come in March and April ?
 
olhausen said:
I don't ever give up on winter until the second week of March has come and gone. Of course I'm farther north then most but I still wouldn't be putting a fork in winter a week before January has ended unless I was in north Florida.
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Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
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Unfortunately, it has always seemed that if we get a second storm in the winter, with the exception of 2010/11, the pattern is big storm, small storm. Just the way I see it is that if we get something , we will have a small system, or we could get a once in a long time storm that is a big one. Who knows.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Stick a fork in this system? We're not even in the 3-5 day window yet. I'm not worried about the suppressed look at this point in time. I've seen the models show a suppress look many of times. It seems like as we get closer and closer to the event, it loses the suppression. Now, if there was a strong Arctic high to the north cutting off the Gulf than yeah, I would be worried about the suppression.

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yeah, never fails to amaze me at the cliffjumpers
 
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I wonder what model TWC goes by ? According to them, I barely get below freezing through 2-04. Seasonal temps Jan 26-Feb 4.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Stick a fork in this system? We're not even in the 3-5 day window yet. I'm not worried about the suppressed look at this point in time. I've seen the models show a suppress look many of times. It seems like as we get closer and closer to the event, it loses the suppression. Now, if there was a strong Arctic high to the north cutting off the Gulf than yeah, I would be worried about the suppression.

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To be fair to my comment...I never said I was sticking a fork in this system. I'm close and model agreement w/other factors suggest suppression maybe the right solution for this system. How suppressed only time will tell. I'm always hopeful I'm wrong and this system leads to a nice hit.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
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I think next winter will be better.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly even an inch of snow wouldn't get me too excited right now. I wanna see a big dog, 6"+ snowstorm. I had 2.5" in early January, and anything less than that would be disappointing.
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so you already hit your season average and you are not happy?

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