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Pattern January thread part deux

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whatalife said:
What tease the GFS is...LOL


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Shoot, that's exactly where I want it to be this far out...a little early, and a little low. Last time I was in the sweet spot for days, and got 33 and rain, lol. Now this has potential!!! It'll come north some, slow down some, and a phantom high will appear above..maybe two! Fermentation is the key! Tony
 
dsaur said:
Shoot, that's exactly where I want it to be this far out...a little early, and a little low. Last time I was in the sweet spot for days, and got 33 and rain, lol. Now this has potential!!! It'll come north some, slow down some, and a phantom high will appear above..maybe two! Fermentation is the key! Tony
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HAHA! True...


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The 18Z GFS gives Phil a cold rain (40's) on 1/29 from the deeply supressed low that never even crosses FL. OTOH, it doesn't have that steep W N.A. ridging that yesterday's GFS runs had leading into early Feb.
 
Shawn said:
I found a random sleet on some stairs and fixed you up with it. Rofl.
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I guess I'd better be careful what I ask for, lol. Thanks, my friend. Now folks will think I've set up a trap, with clean risers and ice covered treads, lol. Straight out of Home Alone :) T
 
Storm5 said:
lol what a cf
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Get some of that energy consolidated and we can get a good overrunning event.
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GFS gives Phil a cold rain (40's) on 1/29 from the deeply supressed low that never even crosses FL. :eek: OTOH, it doesn't have that steep W N.A. ridging that yesterday's GFS runs had leading into early Feb.
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:cool:
 
The GFS isn't looking as great going into February on this one. Its been getting worse since the 0z.

Its also another one that has snow in Mexico and its not too far out there that it does.
 
18z GFS has the shield of moisture further north than 12z GFS. It'll get there.

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Lol the GFS is going to make a run at another phaser for early next month.

Edit: Nevermind. Thought it would for a moment.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The GFS isn't looking as great going into February on this one. Its been getting worse since the 0z.

Its also another one that has snow in Mexico and its not too far out there that it does.
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GG has made an important point here. The GFS has warmed considerably for the first few days of Feb vs its runs ending last night. Cold more transient and more like what the warmer EPS has been suggesting vs the cold GEFS.
 
Hey, Mr. Abacus!! What usually happens when the middle of Jan is eaten up with Indian Summer, or the big thaw, or whatever this is. Doesn't climo say after two week of unusual heat in Jan, then the odds are for a cross polar flow in Feb? With tons of sleet? Come on, Larry, help us out here, please :) T
 
GaWx said:
GG has made an important point here. The GFS has warmed considerably for the first few days of Feb vs its runs ending last night. Cold more transient and more like what the warmer EPS has been suggesting vs the cold GEFS.
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Not a good trend at all.


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dsaur said:
Hey, Mr. Abacus!! What usually happens when the middle of Jan is eaten up with Indian Summer, or the big thaw, or whatever this is. Doesn't climo say after two week of unusual heat in Jan, then the odds are for a cross polar flow in Feb? With tons of sleet? Come on, Larry, help us out here, please :) T
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Love your avatar! Well, Tony, to be honest, I haven't analyzed that. However, one thing I've been looking at recently is the utter lack of major SN/IP at ATL and much of the SE the 1st week in Feb. The fun and games in Feb don't usually like to get going til the 2nd week for some reason.
 
GaWx said:
Love your avatar! Well, Tony, to be honest, I haven't analyzed that. However, one thing I've been looking at recently is the utter lack of major SN/IP at ATL and much of the SE the 1st week in Feb. The fun and games in Feb don't usually like to get going til the 2nd week for some reason.
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It's the same way up here Larry the first week of February hasn't been that kind

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I still like late in the month as a possibility but we will likely have to wait until the second week of February after that.
 
gfs is bridging the epo and Scandinavian ridges . not really worried about seeing op runs go from cold to warm . as long as the epo is in the tank we will have cold blasts with your normal warming in between
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SD said:
It's the same way up here Larry the first week of February hasn't been that kind

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Seems we've had some decent events right around valentines day, in fact if memory serves we are at least tracking a threat during that time most years (of course they don't all pan out) and I remember your birthday has the first week of Feb cursed it seems. :D
 
GaWx said:
GG has made an important point here. The GFS has warmed considerably for the first few days of Feb vs its runs ending last night. Cold more transient and more like what the warmer EPS has been suggesting vs the cold GEFS.
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This is what happens when you put all your hopes and dreams on the often too cold model, the GFS! Pretty soon it'll be an apps runner, and 40s and rain for everyone!
 
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