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Pattern January thread part deux

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GFS went back and forth with the last storm.
I think the severe weather today could lead to winter storms down the road. There is something to that wives tale about storms in the winter. Points to an active pattern, and often we could go from one extreme to the other within two weeks.
 
Brick Tamland said:
GFS went back and forth with the last storm.
I think the severe weather today could lead to winter storms down the road. There is something to that wives tale about storms in the winter. Points to an active pattern, and often we could go from one extreme to the other within two weeks.
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The very definition of winter in the South!
 
GaWx said:
Love your avatar! Well, Tony, to be honest, I haven't analyzed that. However, one thing I've been looking at recently is the utter lack of major SN/IP at ATL and much of the SE the 1st week in Feb. The fun and games in Feb don't usually like to get going til the 2nd week for some reason.
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Yeah, I'd have thought the system around the 25th, 27th would have had more legs climo wise. I always think of Feb as an after the 1st third kind of month. Bare in mind it's at least a week to 10 days shorter than all the other months, based on how it flies by.
Well, sometime when you are bored it'd be interesting to see how mid Jan thaws correlate with torches or pipe breakers afterwards. My memory says I've live thru a bunch, but could only count of one hand the number of times winter's been over.
Avatar is all Shawn, lol. He's laughing but it's actually a good one, and I'm keeping it! Although, looking at it again, it's probably more like 4 feet of sleet, but we all know that will never happen, lol. T
 
18z gefs - almost every member has a suppressed system day 7-10. Problem is normal you get enough members showing various solutions . in this case it's unanimously suppressed. Not feeling this one at the moment. Something to keep an eye on but nothing exciting at this point

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Storm5, the Euro is telling us big time suppressed. Trough too far east like I've been saying. SD, would agree that without an AO/NAO that's negative, it will be tough for us moving forward. I think at this point it would take some type of ssw to shift things in our favor. Larry mentioned the mjo back in cod. I'm not sure how it's good for us moving forward. Always confused on mjo bcoz I hear so many viewpoints
 
Storm5 said:
18z gefs - almost every member has a suppressed system day 7-10. Problem is normal you get enough members showing various solutions . in this case it's unanimously suppressed. Not feeling this one at the moment. Something to keep an eye on but nothing exciting at this point

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It's about time to stick a fork in this system. I hope I'm wrong but as you pointed to there is a lot of support at this time that it stays suppressed.


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Golferwhotries said:
Storm5, the Euro is telling us big time suppressed. Trough too far east like I've been saying. SD, would agree that without an AO/NAO that's negative, it will be tough for us moving forward. I think at this point it would take some type of ssw to shift things in our favor. Larry mentioned the mjo back in cod. I'm not sure how it's good for us moving forward. Always confused on mjo bcoz I hear so many viewpoints
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As long as the we have an epo/pna combo here and there we will have our chances . We are not getting a -NAO . no big deal as the pacific is headed towards a much better pattern. Sure we would like to see a -AO for something more sustained but even without there will be plenty of cold around . Plus there are signs across the board we get mega blocking over Alaska for the next few weeks with hints it heads towards the pole and bridges with the Scandinavian ridge. I'm fine where stand right regardless of the AO and nao. There are other ways to score without them . The SE has scored plenty in the last 5 years with a EPO driven pattern.

As for Larry, he has said for years that data supports the SE getting cold when the mjo heads for the COD. Plus the MJO forecasts have been horrible this year . I honestly haven't looked at oe mjo forecast in over a month .

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whatalife said:
It's about time to stick a fork in this system. I hope I'm wrong but as you pointed to there is a lot of support at this time that it stays suppressed.


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this is what I've been trying to say. It might not make sense to y'all, but the kind of pattern that is shown in that time period actually favors suppression. It sucks but is true, now it doesn't mean that it's not something that is possible, but a significant move will have be made after the severe weather event pulls out.

Something that may help is a weak northern stream system tugging at it. Right now there is nothing that is keeping this storm from NOT being suppressed.
 
This certainly doesn't mean a winter storm is not going to happen, but our most likely chances at it is:

A. Timing a storm right before moderation times in the pattern (we've seen the GFS try to hint at this a couple of times).
B. Seeing a clipper and GOM shortwave partially phase.
 
I guess this was a front loaded winter after all. I hope everyone scored with that system in early January.
 
whatalife said:
It's about time to stick a fork in this system. I hope I'm wrong but as you pointed to there is a lot of support at this time that it stays suppressed.


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Stick a fork in this system? We're not even in the 3-5 day window yet. I'm not worried about the suppressed look at this point in time. I've seen the models show a suppress look many of times. It seems like as we get closer and closer to the event, it loses the suppression. Now, if there was a strong Arctic high to the north cutting off the Gulf than yeah, I would be worried about the suppression.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Stick a fork in this system? We're not even in the 3-5 day window yet. I'm not worried about the suppressed look at this point in time. I've seen the models show a suppress look many of times. It seems like as we get closer and closer to the event, it loses the suppression. Now, if there was a strong Arctic high to the north cutting off the Gulf than yeah, I would be worried about the suppression.

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Suppression is actually favorable with this pattern. There is nothing keeping that GOM disturbance from not staying south right now.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Stick a fork in this system? We're not even in the 3-5 day window yet. I'm not worried about the suppressed look at this point in time. I've seen the models show a suppress look many of times. It seems like as we get closer and closer to the event, it loses the suppression. Now, if there was a strong Arctic high to the north cutting off the Gulf than yeah, I would be worried about the suppression.

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if we were just dealing with a PV flex I would be inclined to agree with you as the cold push is often overdone. But with the closed ridge over the Pacific NW it's gonna be tough for amplification now that's assuming that ridge is that strong and actually sets up there. but we really need it a few 100 miles west of this position. we won't get a storm with this look . needs to be further west. now we could do ok with an overrunning event with so much energy flying around but we still need things a little more to the west even for that
0084ed72e710bfbba8089074e9612a7b.jpg


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Atlanta is running +10 for January as of yesterday. Unbelievable. Maybe the cold the last few days of January will bring it down to +7 or +8.
 
Storm5 said:
if we were just dealing with a PV flex I would be inclined to agree with you as the cold push is often overdone. But with the closed ridge over the Pacific NW it's gonna be tough for amplification now that's assuming that ridge is that strong and actually sets up there. but we really need it a few 100 miles west of this position. we won't get a storm with this look . needs to be further west. now we could do ok with an overrunning event with so much energy flying around but we still need things a little more to the west even for that
0084ed72e710bfbba8089074e9612a7b.jpg


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I agree, but we don't want that ridgeing too far west cause then this might allow for the system to be a runner or allow the system to come too far north then we would be dealing with a lousy warm nose. I'm liking of where the ridgeing is now, this look indeed looks like an overrunning event may take place. I'd rather have this look than anything else. This is the best look we've seen all winter.

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