Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe

[SD]

Probably a decent amount of wind and severe weather

 

[weatherfide]

Starting out with a bang in TX. Sheer isn't crazy but the CAPE is pretty high around Houston.

 

[JHS]

Hopefully the winds are being modeled too high, but if they are not, we are in for a rough ride Tuesday. The GFS shows gusts up to 70mph even outside of storms. 75 knot winds at 850 ahead of what would be a solid line of storms sweeping through. This is for most of SC and NC.

 

[CannedHeat]

 

[Brick Tamland]

We can get rain, wind, and severe weather in winter but not snow. Our climate sucks.

 

[JHS]

I look for that risk to be pulled back to the northwest at least 1-2 rows of counties unless models trends change. Most models kick the CAD out for most of us this time in the Carolinas.

 

[Stormsfury]

Modeled wind fields could even get little low topped discrete showers spinning quickly. Increase CAPE values, and the Carolinas are in for one hell of an outbreak Tuesday.

 

[SD]

Gfs with widespread 50-60mph gusts that's impressive to me since the gfs usually doesn't go crazy with the wind

 

[JHS]

Modeled wind fields could even get little low topped discrete showers spinning quickly. Increase CAPE values, and the Carolinas are in for one hell of an outbreak Tuesday.

Th only saving grace from a big mess with severe storms and gradient wind right now is cloud cover and rain. I hate to think about what may happen if for some reason we get some sunshine on Tuesday. If we can readily mix up to 850MB we will be in trouble even away from storms from the gradient wind. As for CAD the GFS gets rid of it for most of us, while the Euro keeps it for a larger area. That boundary may well be a big trouble spot with this system.

 

[JHS]

Gfs with widespread 50-60mph gusts that's impressive to me since the gfs usually doesn't go crazy with the wind

This has been on the GFS for at least 2-3 days now. It is showing a small period of even higher winds as that big squall line goes through. Someone may see a 90+ gust or 2 if that line can become surface based.

 

[SD]

 

[CaryWx]

da hell is that map?

 

[SD]

da hell is that map?

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 140095View attachment 140096

Is that background wind or wind associated with thunderstorms?

 

[rburrel2]

Wedge will keep severe in check for most on this board.

 

[CaryWx]

 

[SD]

Is that background wind or wind associated with thunderstorms?

That's just the max gusts I got leafing through the gfs run at each time stamp. It's more convection for the Carolinas and va, gradient to the S and West

 

[CaryWx]

Wedge will keep severe in check for most on this board.

will it stop straight line though?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wedge will keep severe in check for most on this board.

Not to sure about that, maybe the foothills/upstate

 

[weatherfide]

will it stop straight line though?

Yes. It will "ride" over the wedge until the wedge breaks. The wedge basically extends the boundary layer a few hundred feet higher. The wedge will have it's own gusts from the northeast, east and southeast but won't be as strong. However, heavy convection can lead to downbursts that punch through the wedge. Elevated thunderstorms are cool to watch.