Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Henry2326]

Navgem goes north too.

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Definitely showing the retraction in the high.

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Brent]

Thats for 98L not Dorian

 

[Henry2326]

.

Thats for 98L not Dorian

Thanks...deleted

 

[Brent]

11pm advisory 80 mph peak before the Shredder

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Only thing stopping Dorian from retaining the intensity is Hispaniola. If it manages to retain its COC and not be too weak afterwards then it would have potential to blow up later in the gulf if it maintained a WNW track north of Cuba.

 

[BufordWX]

NHC Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 3:

...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...
...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...

LOCATION: 10.9N 50.4W
ABOUT 635 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB

NHC Forcast track/Intensity:


12H: 45 MPH
24H: 50 MPH
36H: 60 MPH
48H: 65 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 80 MPH
120H: 65 MPH...INLAND

Key Messages:

 

[BufordWX]

FWIW 00z ICON at hour 114 is even farther north then the 18z run.

 

[BufordWX]

FWIW 00z ICON at hour 114 is even farther north then the 18z run.View attachment 21939

We got trouble on the ICON.

 

[Henry2326]

We got trouble on the ICON.View attachment 21941

Yup....a tad bit further north than the 18z Navgem.

 

[Ethan80963]

GFS legacy stronger vs previous run

 

[accu35]

Dorian cant even last before the islands on the 0z gfs. Other models do keep it together and stronger

 

[Brent]

The old gfs is alive near the NE tip of Cuba

Strengthening along the Cuban coast

 

[accu35]

The old gfs is alive near the NE tip of Cuba

Strengthening along the Cuban coast

View attachment 21943

I just seen that, could be something if models do show strengthening in the future

 

[Brent]

the Legacy goes inland over Cuba

Probably gonna wind up in the Gulf

 

[Brent]

Houston we have a problem

RI in the Gulf 967 mb

 

[accu35]

Houston we have a problem View attachment 21944

RI in the Gulf 967 mb View attachment 21945

With this shown, I can see the possibility

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

WELL NOT ON POINT BUT NOT REAL FAR OFF AT THIS CURRENT TIME WITH WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING

 

[accu35]

WELL NOT ON POINT BUT NOT REAL FAR OFF AT THIS CURRENT TIME WITH WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING



View attachment 21946

Is this where you think it's going but not a official forecast track? Because if so, than that's right over my house lol

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is very weak coming into the Lesser Antilles. It is easily the weakest of the last 4 runs.