YES THIS IS WHAT I DREW UP IN PAINT SO I CAN COMPARE "MY TRACK" WITH WHAT THE FINAL TRACK IS WHEN EVER THIS IS FIZZLED OUT., SORRY ABOUT BOMBING YOUR HOUSE
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Brent
Member
Euro goes to the Caribbean graveyard south of the Shredder
Brent
Member
HWRF is weaker overall but at the end of the run appears to miss most of the Shredder to the north and is strengthening
HWRF-PARENT HAS IT SKIRTING THE COAST AND GETTING STRONGER AS WELL
WELL DOWN TO 957Mb
Here is a GEFS modke track , right to about Mobile,AL
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Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
NHC Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 4:
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...
LOCATION: 11.0N 51.6W
ABOUT 555 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB
Watches/Warning Changes:
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados.
NHC forecast Track/Intensity:
12H: 45 MPH
24H: 50 MPH
36H: 60 MPH
48H: 65 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 70 MPH
120H: 40 MPH...INLAND
Key Messages:
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...
LOCATION: 11.0N 51.6W
ABOUT 555 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB
Watches/Warning Changes:
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados.
NHC forecast Track/Intensity:
12H: 45 MPH
24H: 50 MPH
36H: 60 MPH
48H: 65 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 70 MPH
120H: 40 MPH...INLAND
Key Messages:
Last edited:
Henry2326
Member
Good graphic of the "shredder"...... 
Henry2326
Member
06z ICON stays north. 00z Navgem stays north.
06z GFS goes to the shredder.....
06z Legacy stays north to make it in the gulf.
06z GFS goes to the shredder.....
06z Legacy stays north to make it in the gulf.
THE RED ONE IS WHAT I PREDICT WILL HAPPEN
Henry2326
Member
Yup....waiting to see if you are right again....lol
Henry2326
Member
My key take-away from the 5 am NHC discussion:
Quote. --
"It should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone
to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within
and its small size."
Quote. --
"It should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone
to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within
and its small size."
Henry2326
Member
I've not quite bought into "no retraction of the high". If there is a weakness in the high, the storm is going north. 3 or 4 more days before we can sea...
Henry2326
Member
06z Legacy a little slower intensifying in the gulf but gets to the same place as 00z, but just further west.
If you remember during the winter while CAD verified stronger, the high usually weakened closer to verification. Definitely something to watch. I’m not going all in until we get more ensemble shifts north.
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This is the 06z legacy past 240 landfall as a Cat 1 into Texas
Henry2326
Member
Can you tell how long it sits there? Moves away fast or dumps a ton of water?
Shaggy
Member
The chips are stacking up against Dorian being any kind of major threat unless it can clear the islands to the north if it goes into the shredder and then over Hispaniola then it's pretty much over for it I think especially being such a small circulation once it gets torn apart it's going to be tough to get it back