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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

No wonder the GFS weakens it, as the storm heads West, it shows the anticyclone atop td5 just collapsing, and it crashing into tutt, but literally the anticyclone atop TD5 just completely gets shredded apart, so the storm wouldn’t breath well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
No wonder the GFS weakens it, as the storm heads West, it shows the anticyclone atop td5 just collapsing, and it crashing into tutt, but literally the anticyclone atop TD5 just completely gets shredded apart, so the storm wouldn’t breath well
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Yeah there’s another TUTT right behind that one.


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Henry2326 said:
Uh-huh.....possibly becoming an easy coast (Carolinas?) thang....
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Models have been pretty chaotic with the long range pattern but there is enough there to believe that anything would have a chance to approach the southeast coast in about 8-12 days. That being said the bigger question becomes is there anything left to approach the SE coast. With the islands and a tutt in its path I'm not sold on this surviving the trip.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
No wonder the GFS weakens it, as the storm heads West, it shows the anticyclone atop td5 just collapsing, and it crashing into tutt, but literally the anticyclone atop TD5 just completely gets shredded apart, so the storm wouldn’t breath well
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Yeah that tutt really destroys any environment for the system. For this thing to stay alive it really needs to slow or gain some northward movement and possibly shoot the gap between the tutts north of the islands.

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Tropical Storm Dorian is official as of the 5 PM update.

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

LOCATION: 10.7N 49.1W
ABOUT: 725 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE:1008 MB
 
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Brent said:
EPS tracks go towards Florida a few hurricane members but a lot of weak ones too definitely not a clear cut major threat atmView attachment 21924
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Like for the news, but not for the news, if you get the drift ... :oops: ... north of the islands is a bad omen on this one ... look at the atmosphere ... could ramp if that happens ...
 
BufordWX said:
Tropical Storm Dorian is official as of the 5 PM update.

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

LOCATION: 10.7N 49.1W
ABOUT: 725 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE:1008 MB
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060FD9C9-AC25-43BC-99B9-F9EC00C6F475.png
NHC Intensity Forecast:
12H: 45 MPH
24H: 50 MPH
36H: 60 MPH
48H: 65 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 85 MPH
120H: 80 MPH...INLAND
 
Brent said:
If this thing is really 80 mph over Hispanola lookout

However i have doubts
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Doubts ... you and I ... but ... if 5 days from now the front that is modeled to come through stalls and retreats north, it's got a bulls eye for a place one of us calls home ... big if, but ...
 
pcbjr said:
Like for the news, but not for the news, if you get the drift ... :oops: ... north of the islands is a bad omen on this one ... look at the atmosphere ... could ramp if that happens ...
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The talk of possible RI is interesting. Would hate to be a forecaster for the islands right now. If this thing cranks up their not gonna have a ton of time.

Stronger sooner mean north of the islands? Could have ramifications down stream for intensity and threat to land.
 
Shaggy said:
The talk of possible RI is interesting. Would hate to be a forecaster for the islands right now. If this thing cranks up their not gonna have a ton of time.

Stronger sooner mean north of the islands? Could have ramifications down stream for intensity and threat to land.
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Stronger sooner would definitely pull it north of the islands. However if it gets very strong and maintains that it might just go OTS.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Stronger sooner would definitely pull it north of the islands. However if it gets very strong and maintains that it might just go OTS.
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Sure of course that's possible. My concern is that all the models that are making up the consensus right now dont do much with it and weaken or kill it. That's certainly possible but then to hear the NHC talk about possibility of RI makes you guess if those models are seeing it for what it might really be in reality and how that effects track
 
Shaggy said:
Sure of course that's possible. My concern is that all the models that are making up the consensus right now dont do much with it and weaken or kill it. That's certainly possible but then to hear the NHC talk about possibility of RI makes you guess if those models are seeing it for what it might really be in reality and how that effects track
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It’s gonna have to gain a ton of latitude to go north of the islands being only 10N now.


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Storm actually looks like it low level center is organizing decently fast right now, it’s a small center, a small storm, wouldn’t suprise me if it spun up quickly into a strong ts very quick, I’m here now because something actually formed lol
 
BHS1975 said:
It’s gonna have to gain a ton of latitude to go north of the islands being only 10N now.


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Yeah the lesser antilles wont be missed I was more referring to PR and hispaniola. If it misses the greater antilles then land interaction would be less of a problem.
 
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