• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

I don't think there's going to be a February this year, even if we get what we're hoping for (a less intense 10/11). In Nina winters, when the door slams, it really slams on cold weather.

It looks like there will be a warm up soon, but I don't think it's the door slamming. We likely have about 3 more weeks after this period, starting around Christmas...and that might be it afterward.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't think there's going to be a February this year, even if we get what we're hoping for (a less intense 10/11). In Nina winters, when the door slams, it really slams on cold weather.

It looks like there will be a warm up soon, but I don't think it's the door slamming. We likely have about 3 more weeks after this period, starting around Christmas...and that might be it afterward.
Click to expand...
You may be right, but in Nina winters you still can score with the perfect setup. Who knows February could fool us all with and be cold, Lol!!
 
JHS said:
Deadly serious. I'm ready for spring. These winter storms never work out where I am.
Click to expand...
Winter weather dont work out for alot ppl on here. Your case, rain didnt work out for you last year and now winter weather. You need to move.
 
Keep a wandering eye on the 16th, could be the Carolinas redeemer storm
 
Rain Cold said:
There is nothing really discouraging on any of the LR operational charts. Very cold air looks to build up over Canada with general troughing in the US. We should be variable, but to my eye, it looks like we will be generally at or below average with a couple of short warm-ups mixed in.

Unfortunately, it's not a SE winter storm pattern, and we don't have any hints of Greenland blocking. That said, it looks like there are a few systems that can lay down some snowcover to the north, which can hopefully help us down the road.
Click to expand...
Rain Cold said:
There is nothing really discouraging on any of the LR operational charts. Very cold air looks to build up over Canada with general troughing in the US. We should be variable, but to my eye, it looks like we will be generally at or below average with a couple of short warm-ups mixed in.

Unfortunately, it's not a SE winter storm pattern, and we don't have any hints of Greenland blocking. That said, it looks like there are a few systems that can lay down some snowcover to the north, which can hopefully help us down the road.
Click to expand...

Waiting for a SE winter storm pattern will leave you with a broken heart. We just have to take our chances when we get them . I'm still on the fense about the whole snow cover to the North argument. Obviously snow cover to the north helps keep cold shots from moderating too much but at the same time there are plenty of examples of us scoring without it like yesterday . As for the NAO, I never hold out hope that we will ever have a sustained blocking period. Give me a good Pacific pattern with a nice western ridge and I'll roll the dice

I'm with you I dont see anything disastrous in the LR.
 
MichaelJ said:
Oh, so you'd rather see people get their homes and lives destroyed by severe weather huh? SMDH
Click to expand...
going to step in here defend... dont think he said anything wishful to that nature... im a severe westher lover and storm chaser ... and i dont ever wish to see that...but thats part of the game man... i already getting my preparations for severe i need , for this should be a active period coming shortly... could n should start late january going into spring...
 
At least we have and will continue to have cold air in Canada unlike last year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
tennessee storm said:
going to step in here defend... dont think he said anything wishful to that nature... im a severe westher lover and storm chaser ... and i dont ever wish to see that...but thats part of the game man... i already getting my preparations for severe i need , for this should be a active period coming shortly... could n should start late january going into spring...
Click to expand...

No offense but I hope you don't get much of an opportunity to chase a lot of severe weather, and that it stays cold until April. But that's just me. Personally I think we do have a January thaw but will still have some cold periods, and then Feb. turns mild but cold comes back in March whether we want it to or not
 
MichaelJ said:
No offense but I hope you don't get much of an opportunity to chase a lot of severe weather, and that it stays cold until April. But that's just me. Personally I think we do have a January thaw but will still have some cold periods, and then Feb. turns mild but cold comes back in March whether we want it to or not
Click to expand...
not in a la nina state... the se ridge should become dominant as we roll through january
 
Lol the same GFS that yesterday was showing a sauna for Christmas today throws us a fantasy bone
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png
 
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that this is a front-loaded winter. Maybe it is, but I wouldn't be surprised if some (if not many) of us cash in into February, as well. There have been a number of La Nina winters that delivered some goods in February.
 
GEFS did not look too bad in my opinion either, couple of warm days week before Christmas but then back to normal or BN and set to reload at end of run... generally west coast ridge, east coast trough maybe only negative no Greenland block but overall I'll take it
 
metwannabe said:
GEFS did not look too bad in my opinion either, couple of warm days week before Christmas but then back to normal or BN and set to reload at end of run... generally west coast ridge, east coast trough maybe only negative no Greenland block but overall I'll take it
Click to expand...
If the PNA can get into decent + territory and then hang out like a cowboy at a bar through the end of the month, things could get interesting, especially if the MJO gets to 8 ... :confused:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top