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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Was certainly hopeful we could pull something out of the SW US here this upcoming week but looks like that won't happen fast enough to keep up with the arctic air. In any case this last storm was amazing to track and huge bust in the other direction for once and gives me hope that others esp up here in the Carolinas that got screwed over can score later...
 
Watch this little guy in future GFS runs. It has trended worse so far, but things can change.
image.jpg
 
tennessee storm said:
not in a la nina state... the se ridge should become dominant as we roll through january
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Just because we are in a NINA year doesn’t mean we atomically torch and have severe weather once February starts. Obviously it is more likely to happen based on climo but it’s not set in stone as weather never is. I’ve had plenty of snows in bad/warmer winters. I’ve also probably had less snow during super cold winters then moderate ones excluding the 2010/2011 winter.
 
What about CAD style ice storms ? Do they happen in La Niña winters ?
 
metwannabe said:
Again way out there but D15 EPS looks decent and the entire run looked ok to me, slight and brief warmup but overall bn temps
eps_z500a_b_noram_360.png
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As someone stated earlier, when the cold " relaxes" it's still hovering in the North and Canada, so it does not vacate to the other side of the world. With that said, could produce some good CAD storms, so we can stop SD's whining! :)
 
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome aboard!!! :D Thanks for the thoughts; very well reasoned ... ;)
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome to Southernwx! Now where did I put that bat signal?

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Very true... Spann posted what to me is and excellent write up shortly ago...https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=149921
 
Around winter solstice is the best time to get a storm in the south because of the low sun angle.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Monday will be dry with temps rebounding nicely into 40s for
mountain counties and 50s elsewhere. A vigorous shortwave trough
initially located across northern Minnesota will quickly dive
southeast into the OH Valley by days end. Sfc reflection will remain
across the Great Lakes however it will push a cold front towards the
area. The front should clear the area Monday night into Tuesday with
minimal moisture along its boundary. Cooler air will advect in
behind this feature with some post frontal cu expected in its wake
as evidenced by moisture in the 925-850mb layer. Would not be
surprised to see these clouds spit out some sprinkles or
flurries...mainly across the far north where orographic enhancement
may take place. Right now 850mb temps at least -4 to -5C will
support in-cloud snow but sfc temps should warm above freezing by
afternoon. The threat for flurries would be mainly in the morning
and due to limited moisture have kept things very slight chance
across the far NE for now.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry at this point despite repeated
passages of mid level impulses within the broad trough. Another
front looks to pass through on Friday. Have kept in slight chance
of rain/flurries for Thursday night/early Friday across the
mountains.
FFC’s take.
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
Click to expand...
welcome aboard!
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
Click to expand...

Welcome to the board. Great post!
 
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