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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

accu35 said:
Pattern looks great towards Christmas. Plenty of cold and plenty of potential. More exciting times ahead. For those who didn't get there snow its coming, hang in there.
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Absolutely agree on the potential. The GEFS/EPS have been for a few days insisting that the NC US gets quite cold starting around 12/22 and the cold expands from there with a restrengthening Alaskan ridge and -AO per models. This is quite evident in the latest GEFS/EPS, which continue to have the coldest anomalies on the planet in much of Canada and then shifting into the N US late month. Note that this timeframe has not at all been slipping since I first mentioned it a few days ago.
 
SD said:
The eps established optimism for the pattern leading into Christmas

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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And the GEFS!? Things looking good as we roll forward!
 
Storm5 said:
Waiting for a SE winter storm pattern will leave you with a broken heart. We just have to take our chances when we get them . I'm still on the fense about the whole snow cover to the North argument. Obviously snow cover to the north helps keep cold shots from moderating too much but at the same time there are plenty of examples of us scoring without it like yesterday . As for the NAO, I never hold out hope that we will ever have a sustained blocking period. Give me a good Pacific pattern with a nice western ridge and I'll roll the dice

I'm with you I dont see anything disastrous in the LR.
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I sort of think of snowstorms in the SE like threading a needle. Snow cover to the north makes the eye of the needle a little bigger. Not having it doesn't make the eye vanish, but it's certainly an asset. That's kind of the way I think of it.
 
GaWx said:
Absolutely agree on the potential. The GEFS/EPS have been for a few days insisting that the NC US gets quite cold starting around 12/22 and the cold expands from there with a restrengthening Alaskan ridge and -AO per models. This is quite evident in the latest GEFS/EPS, which continue to have the coldest anomalies on the planet in much of Canada and then shifting into the N US late month. Note that this timeframe has not at all been slipping since I first mentioned it a few days ago.
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Also Larry, if we get a setup like this later in the month or next, then the cold would be alot better for many more of our posters. Wouldn't it be nice to get another winterstorm of some sort this month?
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome! Regarding your point #5, I agree to a certain extent because it is now a weak Niña that appears to have peaked or nearly so and not stronger (hello Feb 1895 and Feb 1899). But also, if someone says something is "likely to happen" and predicts something based on that as opposed to saying something "is going to happen", that's quite reasonable. I currently think Feb is likely to be warmer than normal per analogs and I thus predicted that here but I've yet to say "Feb is going to be warmer than normal". Forecasting is one thing. Assuming anything close to certainty is totally different and is never advised in long range forecasting.
 
GaWx said:
Welcome! Regarding your point #5, I agree to a certain extent because it is now a weak Niña that appears to have peaked or nearly so and not stronger (hello Feb 1895 and Feb 1899). But also, if someone says something is "likely to happen" and predicts something based on that as opposed to saying something "is going to happen", that's quite reasonable. I currently think Feb is likely to be warmer than normal per analogs and I thus predicted that here but I've yet to say "Feb is going to be warmer than normal". Forecasting is one thing. Assuming anything close to certainty is totally different and is never advised in long range forecasting.
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Larry, 100%, but it also goes to mid-range and perhaps if not oftentimes even tomorrow's forecast; it's all a best guess based on data but it's never going to be 100% ('least not in Gainesville ... :confused:)
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome !
 
GaWx said:
Welcome! Regarding your point #5, I agree to a certain extent because it is now a weak Niña that appears to have peaked or nearly so and not stronger (hello Feb 1895 and Feb 1899). But also, if someone says something is "likely to happen" and predicts something based on that as opposed to saying something "is going to happen", that's quite reasonable. I currently think Feb is likely to be warmer than normal per analogs and I thus predicted that here but I've yet to say "Feb is going to be warmer than normal". Forecasting is one thing. Assuming anything close to certainty is totally different and is never advised in long range forecasting.
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Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
 
Hamburgerman7070 said:
Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
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I won't even try to predict whether or not we'll have a SSW and am not sure how crucial it even is as regards how cold DJF is in the SE. However, yes, my understanding is that this is more possible with the current descending -QBO. I may research this some more.

Regarding your 2nd Q, I don't know what a McFarland sig is but I do know that the major ensembles have for several days of runs shown the potential of a strong Arctic outbreak near Christmas. These models show a -EPO to bring in some very cold air at least into the N US but not a solid +PNA just yet to make it likely for a plunge all the way to, say, Phil, weatherdawg, and myself, who all need a solid +PNA more than any other regular posters though an accompanying +PNA would help all of the SE. You being in AR means a +PNA wouldn't be as important as it is for most in the SE. Regardless, analogs combined with the models tell me cold will likely return to the SE last week of Dec and possibly in a big way.
 
Hamburgerman7070 said:
Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
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Welcome !!! Alright more Arkansas people !! Can't wait to here your reports this winter
 
Storm5 said:
I'm with you there. This one has come and gone . Time to look forward and hunt the next
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Hamburgerman7070 said:
Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
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Welcome to southernwx!
 
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