This would mean (if correct) there's a good chance we don't torch until February, hopefully.
Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
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Probably means if it ends up being right we will try to remain colder longer and might ease our way into a milder pattern although when you're trying to make a 5-7 day forecast this far out (> 4-5 weeks), you pretty much have to dampen everything towards NINA climatology, unless there's a big intraseasonal signal
Seriously what the hell is this, a 210 kt jet streak sitting right over the US East Coast and Atlantic Canada?!
This feature has been discontinuously sneaking forward in the runs lately
This feature has been discontinuously sneaking forward in the runs lately
Webb,
Taken at face value (2 meter as well as 850 mb maps), my provider's EPS weeklies based on 0Z EPS today actually have the cold ending after week 2 with near normal as opposed to colder than normal weeks 3-6 for the SE as a whole. Are you adjusting the maps colder for warm bias? Otherwise, I don't see where the weeklies are cold into the 2nd week in Jan (i.e., through the end of the run) for the SE US as a whole taken at face value though they aren't warmer than normal either. The SE is in the normal (white map background color) in all of weeks 3-6 per my provider's maps. Please clarify. Perhaps your provider's maps are using warmer climo normals? Mine use 1981-2010 for climo.
The closest blue colors on my 2 meter maps for weeks 3-4 are the coast of VA and up into the mid-Atlantic states while the closest yellows are near the MS Valley all of weeks 3-6.
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Ahhh ... the drama continues ...
Larry and Webb,
Thank you both. Y'all are great.
Looking at cycles, probably a warmup by the 19th/20th; IMHO what happens after that is crystal ball gazing. For me, I'm thinking ... but if I say what I'm thinking, I'll curse the entire SE as with last winter (so this year read between my lines).
Looking forward to the evolution, and your insights moving forward ...
Best!
Phil
Just to clarify, Phil, this is not my prediction and I don't put much trust in them, regardless, as I'm colder than normal until around the mid point of Jan, but rather I'm just noting what the Euro weeklies are literally showing (which is what I thought he was doing since he said they are below normal) vs 1981-2010 climo. Maybe his maps are vs the warmer 10 year instead of 30 year normals, which would make the anomalies somewhat colder of course.
With you, Larry. Hope it didn't come across otherwise to you, or Webb. Just making 2 points - 1) Past 3 weeks, it is a crystal ball, and more importantly, 2) I'm not gonna pollute this winter like I did last by saying cold ...
I personally wouldn't get bent out of shape on whether or not the EPS is slightly above normal or near normal, the planetary wave pattern still supports a colder than normal eastern US and the maps on weatherbell were cold right into January... The EPS on weatherbell uses a hindcast climatology from 1997-2016, this is probably better to use for the weeklies in the longer term because they have a pretty stout warm bias.
These maps are arguing for a solidly below normal signal into mid January w/ potentially a hiccup or two interspersed between now and then. The anomalies look to be larger than the differences between the 1981-2010 & 1997-2016 climatology so I'd say when combining this w/ their canonical warm bias, they're going for a pretty stout cold regime for the next several weeks.
Webb,
Ok, thanks for posting those & that (using sig warmer 1997-2016 climo) along with one other thing totally explains it. The other thing is that I see on these WxBell maps that their normals (white colors) are based on an extremely thin normal of +0.2 to -0.2 C, which is 1/5 of the range my provider's maps use (+1.0 to -1.0 C). So, WxBell's white colored areas are always going to be much narrower. The 1st 3 shades of blue on WxBell maps, which are for -0.2 to -1.0 C, would be white on my maps. So, even with the warmer climo, only mainly NC and parts of SC would show up as below normal/blue on most of these maps the way my provider displays them and your top map would actually have the nearest blues in VA.
For the record, I agree with you that these maps bode well for the SE US til mid Jan when adjusting for warm bias.
from Robert Gamble at wxsouth:
Following the Friday/Weekend cold shot, the overall pattern across the Northern Hemisphere shows growing Arctic Blocking. You will probably hear about very warm temps on the news before Christmas, over the North Pole. Poor Santa.
Their loss, is our gain though, in terms of cold air. Western Europe (already cold and snowy), and the Eastern United States will remain overall colder than normal in this pattern. Several Cold airmasses will drop into the Eastern US. As for any storms, we'll have to watch individual waves diving over the top of that Western North American ridge in mid month. After the cold spell has ran it's course, I suspect the pattern flips. Not sure when, but then again, as I've mentioned before, the pattern seems to want to keep on repeating, with blocking up north returning again several times this Winter---so it's only a matter of time before Winter Storm(s) arrive. Prepare for a high December Power Bill.
Following the Friday/Weekend cold shot, the overall pattern across the Northern Hemisphere shows growing Arctic Blocking. You will probably hear about very warm temps on the news before Christmas, over the North Pole. Poor Santa.
Their loss, is our gain though, in terms of cold air. Western Europe (already cold and snowy), and the Eastern United States will remain overall colder than normal in this pattern. Several Cold airmasses will drop into the Eastern US. As for any storms, we'll have to watch individual waves diving over the top of that Western North American ridge in mid month. After the cold spell has ran it's course, I suspect the pattern flips. Not sure when, but then again, as I've mentioned before, the pattern seems to want to keep on repeating, with blocking up north returning again several times this Winter---so it's only a matter of time before Winter Storm(s) arrive. Prepare for a high December Power Bill.
Yea it looks warmer for sure. No torch thankfully but nothing close to support snow. SE winters... got to love it. It pulls you in every year.
( yes I understand it’s one model and one run and things could change.)
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Yeah, the 6z was pretty sucktastic for wintry weather!
A clipper here or there, a gulf system on the 17th, is all rain for everybody!
A clipper here or there, a gulf system on the 17th, is all rain for everybody!
Not sure why everyone is getting upset, the Euro ensemble looked similar at this range, the GFS is one deterministic solution, probably not worth looking at beyond the medium range for specifics...
Long range EPS looks a little better on this suite near the end of the run vs the past few runs where it tried to kick the SE Canada vortex off of North America and towards Greenland