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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
18z gfs is loaded with fun potential. I guess we sleep after Christmas
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No. Because then you'll start overseeing
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I've noticed that the last few GFS runs have had more of a La Nina pattern in the 11-15 with more of a -PNA bringing in the brunt of Arctic airmasses more into the N Plains.
 
GaWx said:
I've noticed that the last few GFS runs have had more of a La Nina pattern in the 11-15 with more of a -PNA bringing in the brunt of Arctic airmasses more into the N Plains.
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Larry,
That PNA is the key to the cellar or the attic ... ;)
... and down she slides ...

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with the NAO being of no help ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
That PNA is the key to the cellar or the attic ... ;)
... and down she slides ...
with the NAO being of no help ... :confused:
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IF the +PNA ,-NAO, and -EPO were to actually go bye bye, hopefully there'd still be a solid -AO in the last half of Dec. Analogs do suggest that fwiw.
 
Meh, the SE US ridge isn't all that impressive... Key difference between the EPS and GEFS out at week 2 is the placement of the ridge over the NE Pacific and Canadian Rockies, the EPS looks much better for the SE US with the ridge centered over the Rockies vs the GEFS which has it over the NE Pacific. Hence the EPS is forecasting a very solid +PNA right on into week 3 and the forecasts have only been getting more positive over the past few days. I'd trust the Euro suite's LR forecast over the GEFS in most cases...
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The clipper parade on the models is awesome and chances are one of these bomb into a nice coastal. If I were in northeast NC into the mid Atlantic I would be pumped

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SD said:
The clipper parade on the models is awesome and chances are one of these bomb into a nice coastal. If I were in northeast NC into the mid Atlantic I would be pumped

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It's been a long time since we've seen so much potential.
 
SD said:
The clipper parade on the models is awesome and chances are one of these bomb into a nice coastal. If I were in northeast NC into the mid Atlantic I would be pumped

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You think we’ll get shafted?


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Brick Tamland said:
It's been a long time since we've seen so much potential.
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It certainly isn't boring. I'm never sold on capitalizing on clippers but the pattern certainly said looks ripe to possibly bomb one. I worry it'll be to our NE

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ForsythSnow said:
All the talk about snow, and no talk about how this rain is coming in. Glad we are about to get some good downpours. Haven't been having much rain this month or recently.
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Yeah it picked up quickly. Got soaked coming out of class.
 
BHS1975 said:
You think we’ll get shafted?


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Yes and no. I'm not sure we get bullseyed but I don't think we get shut out either. I think the pattern leading into Christmas might support a larger storm not sure if we are on the warm side.

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Question that no one else has brought up yet, but are there any signs of an active severe season after the cold is over? I know last January was quite active in some areas.
 
Back in November, the GFS nailed the +PNA and the -NAO 11-15 days prior than the EURO. The EURO kept spitting out zonal flow. Keep that in mind going forward...
 
WeatherLC said:
Question that no one else has brought up yet, but are there any signs of an active severe season after the cold is over? I know last January was quite active in some areas.
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I'd lean more toward Feb seeing severe pick up

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