Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
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Euro holding serve on another arctic blast in the middle part of next week
So IF there is any snow cover around oh boy.... insulate those pipes
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Look at that cold S of Florida, down to Cuba! That would be very impressive anomalies that far South!!
Waiting on the eps to finish ...... Will be interesting to see if has a system in the 12th-17th period
Really like the look of the EPS next week leading up to the December 13-21 period, deep and fresh snow cover to our north, big arctic airmass comes divebombing into the eastern US, all we're missing is something to come out of the southwestern US in the southern stream
This is about as classic of a setup as you'll ever see preceding an overrunning/Miller B event in the Carolinas, SE US, and Mid Atlantic at 500 hPa with a big cold core vortex about to retreat over SE Canada, huge rex block over Alaska, and something left behind in the southern stream over the Baja peninsula
I really like how stable the cold pattern continues to look on virtually all of the models through D10. Obviously, there will be some waxing and waning of the intensity through the balance of the month, but it would certainly be nice to continue to see the PNA ridge and ridging over the pole and into Greenland remain steady in the means as we head into January.
Agreed, but just prepare. Once it breaks down and we flip it's gonna be UGLY. hopefully that wont happen till mid January . We need to score sooner vs later
That's probably right. But I'm starting to think this just *might not* turn out to be one of those common "winter is over" winters after we flip. I certainly don't expect wall to wall cold, but we're off to quite the surprising start, and I'm starting to think this might be one of those winters that ends up leaving everyone befuddled by its propensity to get cold in the east.
B
Brick Tamland
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I think we're so used to being in patterns that seem to last forever, and either be one extreme or the other. Maybe we'll get lucky this winter and the upcoming pattern will hold for a long time and give us plenty of chances for winter storms. Or maybe we'll actually have a winter with a bunch of different pattern changes.
Probably gonna have a warmer system this run . But There is plenty of energy out west this run
Best case is probably a less intense version of 10/11 (which is an analog that gets tossed around a lot however). Cold early but once the door slammed, February was very warm. But what was left in it's wake is one of the best winters in recent memory.
Man I hope so, that's my biggest fear at this point, that we have this really good cold pattern juuuussstt outside climo and we blank, then January go time comes around and we lose all our blocks.
Not all of Feb 2011 was warm. The first two weeks were pretty cold I believe and it even snowed. Then once mid Feb hit, it got warm fast and stayed warm.
EPS weeklies are below normal right on into the 2nd week of January, can see signs of the classical NINA winter pattern progression trying to catch up with us by mid month, but with a huge ridge over NE Siberia and Alaska, North America would continue to get seeded w/ cold air...
Webb,
About that Santa clause suit --- what size do you wear? Headed out to do some shopping ...
Day 10. Impressive staying power
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