Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is front is strong af on day 5. Goes from 70s and possibly some rain/strong thunderstorms to 30s & 40s, with a shot of some snow mixing in a few hours later. Just plain wild...
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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Interesting, yeah that's not a bad look, I would ideally like to see the Siberian Vortex strengthen a little and expand poleward to optimize the destruction of the polar vortex but we can work with that. Almost looks more like an attempt to split the polar vortex in two with a classic wavenumber 2 high latitude ridge pair on opposite sides of the globe trying to literally squeeze it off the pole
The EPS would agree.
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That ridge going over the pole is pretty amazing
The EPS would agree.
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I will make a deal with you. If the GFS shows snowon the 18z run or the 0z does you can start the first thread
SimeonNC
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Regardless of WP typhoon development and recurvature or not, I definitely like to see this Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) moving into the central Pacific as we close in on mid December, certainly would be one way to give the subtropical jet and NAO a massive shot in the arm.
whatalife
Moderator
What would you say is the likelihood of this happening?
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WeatherWatch
Member
It's looking likely now that some will receive a quick shot at some light snow showers/flurries on the back edge of the moisture. I doubt there will be much accumulations because the ground will be wet, and the line of moisture will be moving rapidly, not allowing time for much accumulations. If any accumulations, it will be very light, and here and there.
After the initial plunge of cold air there could be a late bloomer that may affect the outer banks and some area's further inland of NC, VA, and on up to the northeastern US. I think there could be a board wide storm system that will come about between days 7-12, give or take. There will still be cold air to work with, enough to where frozen precip. is in the "equation."
After the initial plunge of cold air there could be a late bloomer that may affect the outer banks and some area's further inland of NC, VA, and on up to the northeastern US. I think there could be a board wide storm system that will come about between days 7-12, give or take. There will still be cold air to work with, enough to where frozen precip. is in the "equation."
sigwx
Member
Nashville is throwing the "S" word out there
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
319 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2017
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be firmly across the area for the next couple
of days. Even with a cold front moving through yesterday...
afternoon high temperatures were able to get into the 60 to 63
degree range today. Expect afternoon high temperatures to warm a
few degrees each day with upper 60s in Nashville by Monday.
With the boundary being situated across North Alabama/Southern
Tennessee there should be some patchy fog /possible areas of
dense/ east of I-24 and south of I-40 by early morning hours. It
may be slow to burn off once again across the Plateau and the
Crossville area.
As has been advertised...the next front will be mid week. There
should be a slight amount of upper level instability on
Tuesday...and with highs around 60 have elected to add a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Will go with categorical pops west for
Monday night and east on Tuesday.
Models agree that there will be some seriously cold air behind
this front. It will definitely feel more like winter than it has
so far this year. Saturday morning temperatures will be in the
lower to mid 20s. The extended models still disagree with the
smaller features of this system. The front moves through Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Then the GFS has two additional clipper
system Thursday and Saturday where the EURO keeps a more elongated
trough across the south. At this time will kind of split the
difference and keep slight chance pops Thursday and Friday. With
such cold air in place this means that mixed precip and snow has
been put into the forecast.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
319 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2017
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be firmly across the area for the next couple
of days. Even with a cold front moving through yesterday...
afternoon high temperatures were able to get into the 60 to 63
degree range today. Expect afternoon high temperatures to warm a
few degrees each day with upper 60s in Nashville by Monday.
With the boundary being situated across North Alabama/Southern
Tennessee there should be some patchy fog /possible areas of
dense/ east of I-24 and south of I-40 by early morning hours. It
may be slow to burn off once again across the Plateau and the
Crossville area.
As has been advertised...the next front will be mid week. There
should be a slight amount of upper level instability on
Tuesday...and with highs around 60 have elected to add a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Will go with categorical pops west for
Monday night and east on Tuesday.
Models agree that there will be some seriously cold air behind
this front. It will definitely feel more like winter than it has
so far this year. Saturday morning temperatures will be in the
lower to mid 20s. The extended models still disagree with the
smaller features of this system. The front moves through Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Then the GFS has two additional clipper
system Thursday and Saturday where the EURO keeps a more elongated
trough across the south. At this time will kind of split the
difference and keep slight chance pops Thursday and Friday. With
such cold air in place this means that mixed precip and snow has
been put into the forecast.
TWC is hyping " snow into the south" , with the 9th system, and showing the 12z euro! Mainly because of the possible blow up off the coast and affecting the NE
accu35
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Still trying to figure out JB saying snow down to the gulf coast? Haven't seen that yet.
I saw no snow to the Gulf on the 12Z Euro run.
Stormlover
Member
He looks at the pattern, not one run at face value.
JB literally said that he saw snow on the 12Z Euro (face value):
"Euro has it snowing all the way to the gulf coast late next week.
Interesting"
Parker
Member
That system next weekend will definetley help with the snowpack to our north.
SimeonNC
Member
I'm guessing the 18z was dumpster fire since there's no chatter about it?