• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

whamby said:
coldest run yet for CHA ( 5 degrees), super clipper at the end of the run in LaLa Land:
gfs_T2m_seus_36.png
gfs_T2m_seus_50.png
Click to expand...
and that is at midnight, or 1AM, not the morning low
 
I also think the GFS may still have radiation issues over snow cover (i.e. produces lows that are way too cold over a snow pack) but i'm not sure if they tuned the model in the past year or so to correct for this
 
Webberweather53 said:
I also think the GFS may still have radiation issues over snow cover (i.e. produces lows that are way too cold over a snow pack) but i'm not sure if they tuned the model in the past year or so to correct for this
Click to expand...
Webb,
FWIW, that's not an issue I've had since 1989 ... LOL
And given what Jan and Feb 1990 were like, it's one I hope not to have in December of this year ...
Best,
Phil
 
While storms will appear and disappear on the models over the next 10-15 days, the one prerequisite for snow is cold and we seem to have that in the works for a while, so there is always hope! Without the cold it really doesn't matter hence this means game on
 
just looked over the EPS mean snowfall and it has been noticeably increasing each of the last 4 runs over our region. This likely is not from changes in a single storm potential but the aggregate potential of systems over the 15 day period. So it would seem the likelihood of "something" happening at some point during the period is getting better and better.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The storm signal is so strong between now and the 15th. Multiple chances showing up on the models. I don't recall a December having so much potential.
Click to expand...

It's been a long time, that's for sure.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's been a long time, that's for sure.
Click to expand...
It has been and it's fun and it's nice for once after a long spell, and looks to be that way at least for a bit.
The thing of concern is whether this all burns out in 2 - 3 - 4 weeks and then we're into a Jan/Feb 1990 (for example), OR if this has staying power like Dec 1977 into Jan/Feb 1978, for a not so precise example (Dec 1977 being mostly Normal and our Dec this year could end up BN).
Bottom line is, the junkie in me notwithstanding, I'd hate for all of us to be "cold turkey" come January 5th, essentially looking at winter in the rear view mirror ... So, watch what you pray and hope for ... unless it's for more than the next 240 hours of model runs ...
 
I just have always hoped that we would have another winter or even month like some of the old storms we hear and read about from the mid to late 1900’s and even 2000. I always tell myself that it has to repeat itself one day, and maybe this will be the year it happens. There is no doubt the models are pointing towards a pattern that I can’t remember seeing in December, and maybe it’ll work out for many on the board. I mean we are honestly all due for it!

It’s just show nice to see sustained cold showing up on all the global models and not just 1-2 day cold shots. I’m anxious to see how this month turns out for many of us.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thanks! I really do appreciate it and glad you enjoyed reading it! Yeah here's part II, part I is just a pair of maps I drew in nmap2.
Part II: Synoptic Evolution and Comparison with January 1940 https://webberweather.wordpress.ncsu.edu/files/2017/12/MEA-443-Case-Study-part-II.pdf
Click to expand...
Just got finished reading this segment. Very well done, as usual. Thank you very much for sharing. The 2000 event was really a once ina lifetime event to experience. It's fascinating to revisit history from a technical meteorological perspective. Nice work.
 
pcbjr said:
It has been and it's fun and it's nice for once after a long spell, and looks to be that way at least for a bit.
The thing of concern is whether this all burns out in 2 - 3 - 4 weeks and then we're into a Jan/Feb 1990 (for example), OR if this has staying power like Dec 1977 into Jan/Feb 1978, for a not so precise example (Dec 1977 being mostly Normal and our Dec this year could end up BN).
Bottom line is, the junkie in me notwithstanding, I'd hate for all of us to be "cold turkey" come January 5th, essentially looking at winter in the rear view mirror ... So, watch what you pray and hope for ... unless it's for more than the next 240 hours of model runs ...
Click to expand...
I hear your concerns for sure. But I look at it like this: For the first time in a long time, we have a December that looks to feature cold and winter storm chances. I don't expect wall to wall cold, but it is very encouraging that we're seeing legit blocking this year and also not having to chase a cold pattern into late January and hope we squeak out something before March. This is really a great thing we're seeing develop (assuming it's real). We'll go warm for a while at some point. But if winter is showing it has the ability to get cold and block already, I expect we'll see more of it later on, even if it takes a vacation for a while. I'm quite optimistic.
 
Parker said:
and even 2000.
Click to expand...
I remember this storm well. I was working the graveyard shift at Bellsouth.net off 400 in Roswell when the snow started around 11. They made us all go home around 2am. I only could afford a motorcycle at the time so I had a 35 mile ride home through torrential snowfall. I was on a dualsport KTM with knobbies... slid around a bunch due to the thickness of snow on the roads. I'll never forget that night and ride home. The next morning was beautiful outside... would love to see that again.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hear your concerns for sure. But I look at it like this: For the first time in a long time, we have a December that looks to feature cold and winter storm chances. I don't expect wall to wall cold, but it is very encouraging that we're seeing legit blocking this year and also not having to chase a cold pattern into late January and hope we squeak out something before March. This is really a great thing we're seeing develop (assuming it's real). We'll go warm for a while at some point. But if winter is showing it has the ability to get cold and block already, I expect we'll see more of it later on, even if it takes a vacation for a while. I'm quite optimistic.
Click to expand...
CR/RC - With ya man! You just articulated what I didn't. My only hope is that there isn't board wide suicide if this snap is it, and looking at a bunch of composites, one has to be aware of the possibilities. For me, personally, I have a ton of hope and some sincere cautious optimism, but I'll not share long term thoughts - did that last year and probably personally jinxed the whole SE in the process ... :confused:
 
Yeah I'm definitely concerned about a warmer pattern later in the winter given the la nina but maybe ill be wrong last year does live in my mind though for all the wrong reasons

But even still this is an encouraging start
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top