• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SD said:
So I haven't looked at a model run in 2 days. What did I miss?
Click to expand...
A meh pattern at best! Cool down, warm up , rain, cool down! The usual winter weather in the south
 
I have to think if we're going to have a storm, I'd zero in on the 12th-17th (no thread though, not yet, unlike the old days at accuweather and some of my "thinking/feeling" is from reading what webber has had to say). Most of this is still fantasy land though, so we'll just have to cross our fingers.

I too, remember Christmas 2010. I think this was a situation that was thread the needle and it required a phase for it to be a nice event and this looked good at first in the models, then trended to light/almost nothing, and at the last minute it started looking like the phase would happen and it did. I was in LaFayette, GA and I remember the forecast call at night was for 1 inch of snow (and I "think" there was a WWA).

Needless to say, the next morning, there was "1 inch of snow" by either 9 or 10 AM and soon a Winter Storm Warning for 4-6 inches of snow.
 
Looks like the 00z Gfs is starting to lock into the first and second wave of arctic air, the second one proving stronger, which usually is how those things go from past observations... Little or no snow on back end of the first front, except for the higher elevations TN,NC,VA..... with the second wave comes a clipper for the Ohio valley/points north.
 
Still snow in S TX next Friday! 0z gonna be a little chilly!
 
In general, even if my area didn't really get much snow at all in the Winter of 10/11, I wouldn't really mind if we had a repeat of that winter (although the circumstances are different this is the analog that has been tossed around). I consider the Southeast-wide storm of January 2011 to have been much more of an icy/sleety mess than a snow storm with me. That doesn't make it not fun/interesting for me but for it stands more as "major winter storm" than "snowstorm".

It was frontloaded and the winters after that sucked, but I wouldn't mind because I'd have seen one (or possibly two) winter storms and if you continued on that pattern, we'd see another good winter in a couple seasons lol.
 
Look out for that positive tilted trough at 186 over Mexico. Could become into a storm system.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
In general, even if my area didn't really get much snow at all in the Winter of 10/11, I wouldn't really mind if we had a repeat of that winter (although the circumstances are different this is the analog that has been tossed around). I consider the Southeast-wide storm of January 2011 to have been much more of an icy/sleety mess than a snow storm with me. That doesn't make it not fun/interesting for me but for it stands more as "major winter storm" than "snowstorm".

It was frontloaded and the winters after that sucked, but I wouldn't mind because I'd have seen one (or possibly two) winter storms and if you continued on that pattern, we'd see another good winter in a couple seasons lol.
Click to expand...
CHA got 8 beautiful fluffy inches with that Jan '11 storm, one of my favorites of recent memory... (sorry, sort of banterish).
 
Ridge on 0z GFS , looks amazeballs! Tall and perfectly placed!
 
Well, there's our storm system at hr 234 east of Miami. It blooms too late, and it's not going on the right track. Maybe we'll see an earlier timing and a northwest trend on future model runs of the GFS.
 
Yeah there's the polar express, it's just later (I'm trying not to banter as much) and honestly its in fantasy land.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Well, there's our storm system at hr 234 east of Miami. It blooms too late, and it's not going on the right track. Maybe we'll see an earlier timing and a northwest trend on future model runs of the GFS.
Click to expand...
If it is suppressed now that is good. Seems the trend lately is for them to move NW as we get closer.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top