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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Shawn said:
There has been a Wintry event in or around Texas for many runs now, I'd start to give it credit.
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if this extreme cold/storm at all pans out here the GFS has been on it since 384 hours... its been really amazing to watch, I'll admit the first couple of days I was like "yeah ok whatever GFS" but it hasn't gone off it much(certainly on the cold)
 
GaWx said:
At first glance, my best guess is that 18Z GFS will not be as good as 12Z (that is no surprise since it was so much better than prior runs), but will be much better than 0Z and somewhat better than 6Z. That would mean that the 12Z improvement trend could still be an indication of what's to come in later runs. I'm already looking forward to the 0Z. And keep in mind that this run is eligible for a toss if we need to though I don't think that will be necessary.
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What I guessed above is pretty much what happened. I wouldn't toss this. It is just a babyish step backward after the giant step forward of the 12Z. Not bad at all.
 
We all certainly get cold at the end of the run. Allan has been saying on twitter the last few days that he believes we get cold right before the New Year
 
Whoa
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I have decided to use today's 18Z suite toss mulligan option on the 18Z GEFS. It wasn't the end of the world but I didn't notice anything good about it and the 12Z GEFS was much better. I think the 0Z GEFS will be significantly better. Ahhh, that feels better, the 18Z Toss, a wx weenie's best friend.
 
You know what we really should do? Let's toss away every other model. Let's even toss away the Euro OP. The only model we should look at is the EPS. The EPS should be considered the master of all models, by absolute far.
 
Storm5 said:
The Euro does not have it so we toss the gfs remember
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Exactly! The GFS changes each run, it's not worth getting let down over.

GaWx said:
I have decided to use today's 18Z suite toss mulligan option on the 18Z GEFS. It wasn't the end of the world but I didn't notice anything good about it and the 12Z GEFS was much better. I think the 0Z GEFS will be significantly better. Ahhh, that feels better, the 18Z Toss, a wx weenie's best friend.
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Good choice. I agree with this statement and every future statement you make about throwing the GEFS out.

GeorgiaGirl said:
You know what we really should do? Let's toss away every other model. Let's even toss away the Euro OP. The only model we should look at is the EPS. The EPS should be considered the master of all models, by absolute far.
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The Euro OP has not been too great, that's for sure! The Euro ensemble on the other hand will remain king in the foreseeable future.
 
At this point,IMO, I would say anywhere from Amarillo to Oklahoma Cty has a 75% chance of having a white Cristmas. Congrats. They've literally had frozen precip for several runs now
 
CAD signature still showing up so by no means am I throwing in the towel. If we can mute that SER again like the 18z showed yesterday then it's game on. Arctic boundary seems intent on setting up in mid Texas through Oklahoma
 
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