There has been a Wintry event in or around Texas for many runs now, I'd start to give it credit.
At first glance, my best guess is that 18Z GFS will not be as good as 12Z (that is no surprise since it was so much better than prior runs), but will be much better than 0Z and somewhat better than 6Z. That would mean that the 12Z improvement trend could still be an indication of what's to come in later runs. I'm already looking forward to the 0Z. And keep in mind that this run is eligible for a toss if we need to though I don't think that will be necessary.
Giving up so easily. Not even within 7days. LolIm done
The Euro does not have it so we toss the gfs rememberThere has been a Wintry event in or around Texas for many runs now, I'd start to give it credit.
The Euro does not have it so we toss the gfs remember
The Euro does not have it so we toss the gfs remember
I have decided to use today's 18Z suite toss mulligan option on the 18Z GEFS. It wasn't the end of the world but I didn't notice anything good about it and the 12Z GEFS was much better. I think the 0Z GEFS will be significantly better. Ahhh, that feels better, the 18Z Toss, a wx weenie's best friend.
You know what we really should do? Let's toss away every other model. Let's even toss away the Euro OP. The only model we should look at is the EPS. The EPS should be considered the master of all models, by absolute far.
LOL, I don't think I would give anyone that high of a chance 10 days out !At this point,IMO, I would say anywhere from Amarillo to Oklahoma Cty has a 75% chance of having a white Cristmas. Congrats. They've literally had frozen precip for several runs now