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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Have a feeling 0z GFS will show the snow and ice in TX and OK again then the Euro will start to fall in line. Congrats Amarillo and OKC should be amazing spending the holidays w/o power
 
I'm far more interested in the ensembles . As Larry pointed out the eps actually trended a little cooler days 11-15 vs previous runs. The GEFS well, has been all over the place . So I'll be interested to see which one gives over the next 48 hours
 
Huntsville
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The model that can get a handle on this upcoming pattern first, will have more weight for me during the remainder of winter. There are a lot of things going on right now with regards to the forecasts over the next two weeks, and I would not rule anything out. What seems locked in is the cold signal in the center of the country. I still don't think the models are handling that energy in the SW very well. That's the piece that needs to get sorted out. As it stands right now we are trailing in this ballgame, but it's only in the 3rd inning.Still a lot of different looks to go before Christmas. Don't cliff-dive yet....
 
It would be something if we saw that typhoon actually recurve. If it does, forget everything that we've seen in the last few days.
 
The typhoon doesnt necessarily have to recurve to have a pretty substantial impact on our pattern obviously it will be much larger if it recurves because the poleward momentum fluxes and meridional displacement of the jet would be pretty insane but it's harder to get a storm to fully recurve like we see earlier in the fall because the mid-latitude waveguide is so strong/mature at this time of the year. Even without a recurve, having a typhoon there would deposit a lot of heat/momentum into the right entrance region of the Pacific Jet and generate a huge upper level, diabatically-induced anticyclone to the northeast over the subtropical North Pacific...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The typhoon doesnt necessarily have to recurve to have a pretty substantial impact on our pattern obviously it will be much larger if it recurves because the poleward momentum fluxes and meridional displacement of the jet would be pretty insane but it's harder to get a storm to fully recurve like we see earlier in the fall because the mid-latitude waveguide is so strong/mature at this time of the year. Even without a recurve, having a typhoon there would deposit a lot of heat/momentum into the right entrance region of the Pacific Jet and generate a huge upper level, diabatically-induced anticyclone to the northeast over the subtropical North Pacific...
Click to expand...
Its amazing how Typhoon effects our weather.
 
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