Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

[Rain Cold]

I realize the Euro model suite is usually treated as king but how good has it really been lately? Good enough to throw away the Euro OP as an outlier run?

The Euro probably still has the best verification scores, but it seems like (just anecdotally speaking) it is not as solid as it used to be before the down...er...upgrade a couple years ago. It seems a lot less consistent now.

Edit: Full disclosure: I may be completely wrong here and just remembering things the way I want to remember them.

 

[Rain Cold]

Hopefully, the 18z GFS will print out another sweet fantasy storm. I want Mack to have to change his avatar again!

Even with yesterday's epic event, Wake Co. was still, you guessed it, right on the line lol!

 

[Shawn]

The Euro probably still has the best verification scores, but it seems like (just anecdotally speaking) it is not as solid as it used to be before the down...er...upgrade a couple years ago. It seems a lot less consistent now.

Edit: Full disclosure: I may be completely wrong here and just remembering things the way I want to remember them.

I was just looking for recent model verification scores. I can't for the life of me find them vs other guidance. Does anyone have a link?

 

[pcbjr]

Full disclosure: I may be completely wrong here and just remembering things the way I want to remember them.

CR,
Welcome to the weather club!
Best!
Phil

 

[Storm5]

Most of it, except the higher resolution modeling in the shorter term. If we (the world) put all our resources into the King Euro model, we'd be able to predict the weather better, I am sure of it.

Nice well then tell Ryan he can get rid of all the models he put on his site and just to roll with the Euro

 

[Shawn]

Nice well then tell Ryan he can get rid of all the models he put on his site and just to roll with the Euro

 

[Rain Cold]

I find it is often best to go with the model with the hot hand, especially if the pattern is fairly stable. Unfortunately that is definitely not the case here. As Webber said, at this point we are basically window shopping a bunch of potential solutions with no idea what the price of admission is ultimately going to be. This will be fun to watch.

Yeah, completely agree. You almost want to give some credence to output that shows the typical Nina look that we all don't want to see. But there are a lot of other elements influencing the pattern. Fun to watch. Frustrating to forecast. I think there's this background nervousness that the "typical" Nina SE ridge winter cancel pattern is just waiting in the wings, an apprehension that has been also fueled by the recent warm winters, the epic string of above normal months, and the general warm globe. Any model solution that starts to revert to a warm look, hence, raises anxiety levels.

 

[Rain Cold]

I was just looking for recent model verification scores. I can't for the life of me find them vs other guidance. Does anyone have a link?

I don't. I think Grit had them on the other board at one point.

CR,
Welcome to the weather club!
Best!
Phil

Thanks brother! I hope you are doing well!

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The GFS needs to be fixed in the worst of ways. It has become an absolute joke. Burn it down

 

[weatherfide]

Yeah, completely agree. You almost want to give some credence to output that shows the typical Nina look that we all don't want to see. But there are a lot of other elements influencing the pattern. Fun to watch. Frustrating to forecast. I think there's this background nervousness that the "typical" Nina SE ridge winter cancel pattern is just waiting in the wings, an apprehension that has been also fueled by the recent warm winters, the epic string of above normal months, and the general warm globe. Any model solution that starts to revert to a warm look, hence, raises anxiety levels.

We should find out when it's within 72 hours, though. Just like in the 1990's.

 

[Stormsfury]

Hey, looking closer, these dew points are fun before precip moves into GA/Carolinas.

Glad you posted that. I was about to say with a look like that, dewpoints were going to have to be very low with that setup.
That screams monster wedge look all over it

 

[Rain Cold]

We should find out when it's within 72 hours, though. Just like in the 1990's.

Man, in some ways those were the best days. Info is so instantaneous now, which is convenient. And scientifically speaking, more data is always better. But the anticipation of waiting till the 6:00 or 11:00 news to see if the forecast changed was something!

 

[pcbjr]

Man, in some ways those were the best days. Info is so instantaneous now, which is convenient. And scientifically speaking, more data is always better. But the anticipation of waiting till the 6:00 or 11:00 news to see if the forecast changed was something!

Plus, one could actually work a full day and not play catch up after hours ...
(at least that applies here in Dec - Feb when I now spend far too much time during the day looking at winter models, and Aug - Sept, which is ditto on the tropics)

 

[Tarheel1]

Man, in some ways those were the best days. Info is so instantaneous now, which is convenient. And scientifically speaking, more data is always better. But the anticipation of waiting till the 6:00 or 11:00 news to see if the forecast changed was something!

Them Brick gifs tho!
Can't wait for 18z crash and burn!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The bowling ball in the SW is going to be even stronger this run on the 18z GFS. Really need that to trend weaker or this SER is going to pump like crazy

 

[GaWx]

At first glance, my best guess is that 18Z GFS will not be as good as 12Z (that is no surprise since it was so much better than prior runs), but will be much better than 0Z and somewhat better than 6Z. That would mean that the 12Z improvement trend could still be an indication of what's to come in later runs. I'm already looking forward to the 0Z. And keep in mind that this run is eligible for a toss if we need to though I don't think that will be necessary.

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, completely agree. You almost want to give some credence to output that shows the typical Nina look that we all don't want to see. But there are a lot of other elements influencing the pattern. Fun to watch. Frustrating to forecast. I think there's this background nervousness that the "typical" Nina SE ridge winter cancel pattern is just waiting in the wings, an apprehension that has been also fueled by the recent warm winters, the epic string of above normal months, and the general warm globe. Any model solution that starts to revert to a warm look, hence, raises anxiety levels.

*raises hand* Guilty, I'm guilty of said nervousness. I feel like we're fighting a losing battle trying keep the SE ridge away and it's just.....inevitable, Mr. Anderson. Whatever made us have that blocking -AO look up top the last couple weeks needs to reboot and come back in January.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The happy hour gamble. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

 

[pcbjr]

The happy hour gamble. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

... and sometimes folks just get too buzzed ...

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Not sure I buy this massive cut off bowling ball the GFS is showing