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Pattern April Showers

ForsythSnow said:
Check the 850s. They are horrid for anywhere near the NC border and the soundings for when precip is still in the area are so bad sleet or ZR isn't even an option.

Not to mention that that the temps are getting worse by the run for the 850s.
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So really cold rain, the coldest rain ever.

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Score another win for the UK. Most supressed with this weekends rain event and all models folding to it today. Looks like a washout on Saturday for most of us.

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There's still a 50F spread on the latest SREF plume for RDU on Saturday, this is absolutely absurd for this range, I've never seen anything like this. Severe weather and/or rain/snow/ip are both legitimately possible & none, one or the other, or both could occur.
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UK developing the surface low closer to the coast and slowing it down past couple of runs. Looks like that atlantic ridge is to blame.

Miserable April Saturday on the UK, temps in the mid 30F's with a bunch of rain and wind.

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18z NAM is faster with the cold front and there’s more precip this time. Lots of locations in central NC at 32-34F with cold heavy rain mixed with sleet and snow this run... Still can’t believe we’re inside 36 hours and snow, sleet, freezing rain, regular rain, thunderstorms, and tornadoes are all very legitimately still in play.
 
Webberweather53 said:
18z NAM is faster with the cold front and there’s more precip this time. Lots of locations in central NC at 32-34F with cold heavy rain mixed with sleet and snow this run... Still can’t believe we’re inside 36 hours and snow, sleet, freezing rain, regular rain, thunderstorms, and tornadoes are all very legitimately still in play.
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Happy hour has commenced.... this is crazy just 36 hours out. Of course this would be mostly ip I believe but still
nam3km_asnow_seus_58.png
 
metwannabe said:
Happy hour has commenced.... this is crazy just 36 hours out. Of course this would be mostly ip I believe but still
nam3km_asnow_seus_58.png
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The models slowly but surely across the board have been trending towards this solution, if they continue to tick south w/ the low track and we get a secondary to develop via diabatically from convection further west we'll be right back to square one where we were a few days ago.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The models slowly but surely across the board have been trending towards this solution, if they continue to tick south w/ the low track and we get a secondary to develop via diabatically from convection further west we'll be right back to square one where we were a few days ago.
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If that includes some wintry weather here I'll take it, but a NC only? Not again!
 
Don’t get Nam’d, people. Hit me up when the RGEM is on board!
 
Webberweather53 said:
18z NAM is faster with the cold front and there’s more precip this time. Lots of locations in central NC at 32-34F with cold heavy rain mixed with sleet and snow this run... Still can’t believe we’re inside 36 hours and snow, sleet, freezing rain, regular rain, thunderstorms, and tornadoes are all very legitimately still in play.
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Close to a sleet sounding for many in nc with a warm nose from h8-9 then below freezing from 900 to right above the surface.

This pretty classic wedge sounding below before the mid levels start cooling
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Gfs is even more of a snow surrounding but saturation is lost
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I think we are finally turning the corner and headed into spring around here. After Tuesday, no more highs in the 40s !
 
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