1. Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Pattern April Showers

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by SD, Mar 24, 2018.

  1. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    5,275
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    Discuss April here

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,958
    Likes Received:
    4,607
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    There will be now snow. Set it in stone.
     
  3. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2016
    Messages:
    3,874
    Likes Received:
    2,368
    Location:
    Greenville,SC
    April showers getting an early start in your back yard!?:(
     
  4. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2016
    Messages:
    3,874
    Likes Received:
    2,368
    Location:
    Greenville,SC
    Beginning of April looks to keep that damp look! I like it!
     
  5. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    5,275
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    They bring may flowers

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  6. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    5,275
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    I'm actually a little concerned about severe

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  7. Snowflowxxl

    Snowflowxxl Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    944
    Likes Received:
    693
    Location:
    Atlanta
    Usually the big Severe month or the Southeast. Should be interesting to see what happens this year.
     
  8. Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

    Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2017
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    297
    Shouldn’t have much severe to worry about if the temperature forecasts hold up the way they are looking now. Winterish spring won’t let go.
     
  9. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    5,164
    Likes Received:
    8,370
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Winterish spring can only hold off severe for so long. We eventually reach a point usually sometime in April (sometimes May) where big cold shots can be your biggest enemy if you don't like severe weather
     
    Storm5 likes this.
  10. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    5,164
    Likes Received:
    8,370
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    The longer this goes on into April, the more uncertain I become whether this configuration will be beneficial or a detriment to severe weather, we had the outbreak in AL in a pattern loaded w/ cold...
    index (6).png
     
  11. Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

    Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2017
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    297
    Yeah that doesn’t necessarily scream severe outbreak unless you’re on the I-4 corridor in Florida.
     
  12. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    3,160
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    This makes sense. I'd think that a cold spring would often mean more of a delay but not denied spring severe season. So, perhaps May this year will be more active than the typically most active month of April and June may be more like a typical May if this chilly pattern were to continue??
     
    whatalife and Webberweather53 like this.
  13. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    5,164
    Likes Received:
    8,370
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    We had a sizeable outbreak in an even colder pattern in northern Alabama this previous week, the averages for most of the south in early April are in the 70s, slightly below average temps doesn't preclude severe at this time of the year necessarily up to I-40 but yes I'd agree to a point that it's not ideal by any stretch of the imagination
     
    Storm5 likes this.
  14. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    5,164
    Likes Received:
    8,370
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Most of our severe weather events in the front half of the season lack CAPE but have plenty of shear while as we get later into the year towards May and June, we tend to have plenty of CAPE but the jet stream and associated shear is focused well to our NW that it becomes a limiting factor. Based on the SPC's sig TOR climo, the most favorable intersection of both CAPE and shear is around mid April in the southeastern US and of course May in the southern plains. Thus I think it's reasonable to assume that somewhere in/around the 3rd week of April or so, which thereafter our sig TOR climo starts to fall as shear often becomes limiting. Therefore, if we have a cold pattern in place w/ the jet stream displaced further south, it actually can be favorable to severe weather and tornadoes here instead of a hinderance as it is in a good part of Feb/Mar minus perhaps the Gulf coast. If this pattern persists another 3 weeks or so (give or take a week), that's when I'd estimate a chilly pattern more often turns against us rather than for us. Every year is obviously different and the intensity, longevity, and breadth of intruding arctic air masses matter a lot too but this is what our long-term climo suggests. Regardless, I'm all for keeping the heat and humidity at bay a little longer.
     
  15. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,892
    Likes Received:
    1,304
    Location:
    Richmond, Indiana (45 miles west of Dayton)
    Webber, why does the severe weather threat shift west the later you go in the spring ? Is the jet stream further south the further west you go ? If so why is that the case ?
     
  16. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    Messages:
    1,077
    Likes Received:
    590
    Location:
    Chattanooga, Tn
    Spring who?
    [​IMG]
     
    Jimmy Hypocracy and Storm5 like this.
  17. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    5,275
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    Make it stop

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
    whatalife, metwannabe and ForsythSnow like this.
  18. cd2play

    cd2play Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2017
    Messages:
    926
    Likes Received:
    477
    Location:
    Nashville, TN
    It's not going to stop until we're fully mocked, and our weather hobby and snow weeniesm is turned completely upside down :(
     
  19. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,958
    Likes Received:
    4,607
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    It's going to stop or I'm going to buy a large array of heaters and place them from TX to PA, LOL.
     
    whamby likes this.
  20. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,892
    Likes Received:
    1,304
    Location:
    Richmond, Indiana (45 miles west of Dayton)
    I'm just glad that we may hit 60 degrees this week. That's a win in my book.
     
  21. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    5,164
    Likes Received:
    8,370
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    I’ve had enough of this crap.

    3183CC4F-5699-4565-826E-BF0F8B94139B.png
     
    SimeonNC likes this.
  22. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    6,325
    Likes Received:
    6,115
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Webb,
    Summer's coming ... are you sure you've had enough? LOL
    Your Friend,
    Phil
     
  23. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    5,275
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    Close to 80 here Thursday giddy up

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
    Rain Cold and pcbjr like this.
  24. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    5,275
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    I think it's more about just being near normal. This month has been pretty cold -6.8 5 days at normal or above 5 highs of 60+ and only 1 day of 70+. I'm not sure anyone is looking for summer temps just some warm days

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    6,325
    Likes Received:
    6,115
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Never mind ... :(
     
    SD likes this.
  26. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,958
    Likes Received:
    4,607
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    Simple. It's hour 222, bound to change drastically. Let's watch it warm up because it's spring. I'm sure you don't want a 4th dessert after 2 was enough nor does anyone else want NC to have more. I'm ready for some warmer weather but not tornadoes and hurricanes. Definitely not after last year.
     
    pcbjr likes this.
  27. GeorgiaGirl

    GeorgiaGirl Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,731
    Likes Received:
    1,149
    Location:
    Augusta, GA
    LOL...yeah unfortunately if everyone gets their wish...it could mean that you're the casualty of it because you flirt with the 90 degree mark.

    I think I'm sick of it though too, sorry. When your coldest days are gray, damp, or windy (like last week), and in my case, dealing with sudden changes, you tire of it. I'm ready for consistent high 60s-mid 70s temps.
     
  28. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,892
    Likes Received:
    1,304
    Location:
    Richmond, Indiana (45 miles west of Dayton)
    I don't want summer temps. I just want pleasant temps. Give me 60s and 70s every day until October and I'll be happy.
     
  29. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    6,325
    Likes Received:
    6,115
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    I am taking a week off to sit on the lower Big Bend Gulf and do whatever the Gulf tells me ... Enjoy all the whatever and I'll be positively quiet for the duration ... :confused:

    But before signing off, for the record, I'll take a damp, cloudy, cool, miserable day over any of the upcoming 90º & itchy humidity, any time ... ;)
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2018
    olhausen and LetItSnow like this.
  30. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    5,164
    Likes Received:
    8,370
    Location:
    Fayetteville, NC
    Here's a snow/sleet accumulation map of the winter thus far in NC. For at least 80% of the state snowfall-wise, this was a great winter.
    Winter of 2017-18 NC Snowmap.png
     

Share This Page