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Pattern April Showers

Looks like everything is contingent on the strength and placement of the HP in a the middle of the country. How far can we shove this thing south..reminds me of the rest of our winter storms around here :(
 
GaWx said:
As noted above, the 12Z GFS low's track is way north of the 0Z/6Z GFS N FL crossing with it 200 miles north in C GA with a much stronger low than the very weak 0Z/6Z lows. Hopefully, the Happy Hour GFS will make us happy again. Though I wasn't betting on the 100 year+ hit, I also wouldn't give up on this yet. I'd at least give it a couple more runs.
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I’ve noticed a lot of storms have been modeled stronger at 5 days out or so, and trended weaker as the event was closer. With regards to precip amounts and strength of fronts and such, just an observation. As jimmy said, the high is the key and being so anomalous, models may not be handling it well!
 
GaWx said:
This is correct. It also gave ATL its latest 32 on record back to 1879. By the way, not surprisingly the Weather Bureau forecast completely missed the snow as well as the freeze. A low down only to about 40 and a warming trend were predicted. Based on old wx maps, this almost certainly was a bowling ball upper low.
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Got to love those ULL's :) All is possible with a ULL, lol. Plenty of time for that low to get back into Fla :) I want to see another April snow, but ip/zr will be fine too, and anyway, I have some fence posts to plant back in the woods, and would love for the snakes to still be underground due to the cold, cold April, lol. A hot, hot, hot Feb. can be made up for with a cold, cold, cold April/May. What? It takes two sping/summer months to make up for one winter month...everyone knows that :)
 
Only one run. Still a long way to go. The runs have been back and forth with the GFS with this.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Only one run. Still a long way to go. The runs have been back and forth with the GFS with this.
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In reality for the month of April, if this keep the north/warm trend then NC will not see anything out of this. Seem this too many times. SPRING HAS SPRUNG.
 
The 12Z GEFS agrees with the 12Z GFS in being significantly further north than the 0Z/6Z (central GA vs N FL). It is also a bit stronger.
But I still agree with Brick. There were TWO good GFS/GEFS runs followed by the one not good 12Z. I'd say give it till the 0Z GFS/GEFS before completely giving up on the chance for history to be made.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS agrees with the 12Z GFS in being significantly further north than the 0Z/6Z (central GA vs N FL). It is also a bit stronger.
But I still agree with Brick. There were TWO good GFS/GEFS runs followed by the one not good 12Z. I'd say give it till the 0Z GFS/GEFS before completely giving up on the chance for history to be made.
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Not to mention the Euro from last night seemed closer to the GFS than the CMC did. I want to see the 12Z run before saying it's all lost as well as through tonight's runs.
 
Euro says we keep the system.
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Euro has stonger PV lobe than GFS that rotates down into NY and another one on its heels. This is an insanely cold artic air mass with high pressure stretched over the pole to Siberia.

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The Euro's surface low travels over Brunswick, GA, which is over 100 miles south of and weaker than the 12Z GFS (middle GA). That seems to be the key. Also, if this low were to go back over the highly unusual for April N FL in later runs, the door may reopen for N and some of C GA as well as much more of SC for wintry as well as getting the cold rain back for the SE coast.
 
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