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Misc 2017 Banter/venting thread

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Brick Tamland said:
the-encyclopedia-of-white-rappers.jpeg


OR
snow5.jpg
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I got your ice !
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It'd be nice if people who talk about server & website performance ever really, you know, worked with it. AMWX's core server is up, along with their political website off on it's own. Still doubt an 18z GFS run crashed their forum.
 
I came here with a message for General Weather. Where can I find him?

By the way, is it Major or Brigadier General Weather?
 
I know that there's very little chance that the outrageous run today actually verifies, but we are extremely overdue in Central Georgia for an ice storm along the lines of January 1988 or January 1964. Also, I feel like that the region in general is even more overdue for an Arctic outbreak along the lines of December 1962, December 1983, January 1985 in which virtually the entire region would record single digit morning lows. The only one that's been even remotely comparable since the turn of this century is January 2014 and we bottomed out at 13.
 
2/12/14 was the worst ice storm that I think I've ever seen occur to Augusta, GA (I wasn't at home as at that moment I was attending college away from home, which did get ice for a while but it wasn't anything bad, just a quarter inch, it was mainly snow there). Maybe my memory is just shot, but comparing that to January 2004 in my mind (which was bad but not ridiculous) by looking at my dad's pictures from that storm is almost surreal. There was so much ice that...it's unexplainable how crazy the pictures seemed to me.

It'll give up my last name, but I'll post it anyway...my dad's blog entry about this ice storm:
https://markgelbart.wordpress.com/2014/02/27/ice-age-ice-storms/

And that second picture, that tree somehow DIDN'T fall. You'd think it would've but it didn't.
 
All this SER modeling has got me bummed. Missed the last snow event to the south, have plans to be in W VA. for skiing just after Christmas and this crap pops up. Sure hope it gets squelched enough to remain cold up there.
 
I just put in to have the day off after Christmas thinking there would be a winter storm on the table. These recent models suck.
 
Front loaded winter? More like back loaded Fall. Winter hasn’t even started and the cliff diving will start soon. Thankfully I never packed up my shorts yet. If it’s going to warm it better be in the 70s.
 
I know we have a long way to go, and the models can change drastically from day to day, but it sucks to hear how awesome the rest of the month looked for winter weather one day and then the next hear how awful it looks.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know we have a long way to go, and the models can change drastically from day to day, but it sucks to hear how awesome the rest of the month looked for winter weather one day and then the next hear how awful it looks.
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Problem is we are talking about large scale 500mb changes m those take time and don't flip on a dime. The downstream impacts take time as well . We need to see a reversal in the next 24 hours or we are screwed around Christmas. This isn't your typical " we have plenty time " once these changes at H5 take place they are not gonna reverse quickly. Sucks, cause as you said things we looking really good
 
The over/under on how many times the models change between now and the 23rd (given 4 GFS runs per day and 2 Euro's) is 25
 
Storm5 said:
Problem is we are talking about large scale 500mb changes m those take time and don't flip on a dime. The downstream impacts take time as well . We need to see a reversal in the next 24 hours or we are screwed around Christmas. This isn't your typical " we have plenty time " once these changes at H5 take place they are not gonna reverse quickly. Sucks, cause as you said things we looking really good
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I just don't get how things can take a dive so fast. Just shows the models pretty much suck when it comes to getting the long range right. You'd think they would be better and not show a great pattern so often only to pull the rug out from under us. I just don't understand why they do that so often.
 
I guess the bottom line is to never trust models until you get within a week or so and even then be very cautious.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guess the bottom line is to never trust models until you get within a week or so.
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The thing is it's usually when they show a great pattern for winter weather in the long range that's when they are wrong. When they show a sucky pattern in the long range, it's usually right. That's what I don't get. Why so often it shows a great pattern in the long range one day and then they do a complete 180 the next.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The thing is it's usually when they show a great pattern for winter weather in the long range that's when they are wrong. When they show a sucky pattern in the long range, it's usually right. That's what I don't get. Why so often it shows a great pattern in the long range one day and then they do a complete 180 the next.
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I think you are right. That's why you should never trust an advertised great pattern when its 10+ days away.
 
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