Per the NAM, there isn't any CAPE, no updraft helicity, and no sign of severe WX. The line only lasts a couple hours outside the temp change and quickly falls apart as well. It may look severe to you, but I see nothing outside a strong wind gust.
The wind gusts along the line aren't really all that far off from severe limits, it wouldn't take much given the extreme baroclinicity along the edge of the CAD dome and the winds aloft if the convection is intense enough. I've seen many situations like this occasionally produce embedded, rain-wrapped and brief spin up tornadoes, especially near the Triad which is why there's a secondary max in tornado density near Winston-Salem and near/just west of Charlotte as Brandon Vincent of NWS RAH discussed several years ago during the storm spotter training session on campus at NCSU. Many of those tornadoes in the central-western piedmont formed along CAD boundaries like this one.
Absolutely, don't recall dates/specifics but I've seen many times severe right along the CAD and a few tornadoes in those situations, usually nothing widespread but it certainly has happened a number of times. Models usually miss it too if I recall correctly. The wedge can be as fickle for NWP as ull to be honest
Going to be a real battle from the triad to the foot of the apps to get above freezing tomorrow. Models are starting really hit on the idea of the in situ wedge locking in. You can see the wind barbs on the 3k nam flipping from E to north and a narrow ridge axis in that area. I think the area from yadkinville to Morganton might over perform possibly even east of there. But the lack of a consistent dry feed should allow of latent heat release from the freezing rain to push these areas to 32 33 by mid afternoon.
I honestly don't get the whole Forsyth county ice hole, but it's showing up a lot, so it's going to verify. However, if I wake up to freezing rain and icing, or I get sleet instead, it's a bust. It would also be a bust if it's way colder or way warmer tonight.
Ugh those are the worst. I believe it was in 2010 where I got 2.5 inches of snow one evening that then switched to rain and washed it all away. If I remember correctly it switched back to snow and dumped 2 more inches at the end. It was one of the wackier storms I can recall. I just remember thinking if the whole system had stayed snow I would have had the rare 6 plus inch accumulating snow.
