Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Blue_Ridge_Escarpment, Feb 2, 2018.
Potential In-situ CAD situation setting up.
Could get dicey, we all know how models struggle with CAD especially a in-sut CAD, these can sometimes be "over performers". If ice is what you want bring it home... lol
If this over performs I hope it's more sleet than ZR.
12z RGEM is definitely colder than the 6z. Here's the last frame just as precip is moving in. Waiting on tropical tidbits to finish so we can compare to 6z at the same time.
Don't look now, 12z RGEM keeping upstate CAD favored areas below freezing at least until 12z Sunday (the end of the run) Major hit incoming
12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.
If temps remain a degree above freezing on the runs after some icy precipitation, they likely could be wrong and could verify at or below freezing given the CAD. Definitely have to watch this.
12z RGEM is nothing to sneeze at
Looks like a little bit of an eastward trend with the frozen precip. Have to see if it continues further east.
This is at the end of the run and it's still showing zr at that time in NE Ga, upstate SC and western NC....
FWIW: The RGEM has always had runs that go further than 48 on TT, it's just every now and again that it does. (I think 0z or 12z? or maybe the opposite lol)
GFS is a front end thump btw, which may have been an improvement from recently.
If the CAD gets any stronger than forecast by the NAM and RGEM could even get dicey as far east as the Triangle. Some appreciable ZR is becoming probable if not likely for the Triad the way we're going with this
I know that has happened before in the Triangle. I remember one time well when I was in 9th grade. It was just supposed to be rain in Durham, but it ended up being freezing rain, and I got stuck on the school bus that morning because the bus couldn't make it up a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take us home, and there were wrecks all over the place.
This could go from 0 to bad in a hurry! Luckily it's a weekend!
Yeah we won't know for sure as the temps would be marginal at best from foothills to the Triangle (in NC and NW SC and possible even NGa) but it will either be Ice or rain, not seeing much chance of snow in these areas
Looks like the 12Z models are all coming in colder so far. Not a good trend unless the 925 mb layer is subfreezing. FFC also is anticipating ice in the CAD areas up to 0.15".
Hello new thread...❤️
Good thing is the H is on the move so no continuous steady feed of cold, dry air so the zr should be self limited..... still "damage" could be done by then in some areas. .25 seems like a real possibility for some of those areas now and that I believe is Warning criteria for most on here
I think 0.25 of freezing rain is when you start to get damage to trees and power outages.
It may be on the move, but it's tapping arctic air as it does, which is definitely going to make the CAD areas cold. How cold remains to be seen as the runs went colder at 12Z. If we keep seeing this, there are going to be some widespread issues.
I completely agree with this and I was just looking at DP's, they are low teens just prior to precip entering so I certainly see potential for temps to be a degree or two colder...
Canadian looks to tick colder and more ominous:
Lol @ForsythSnow we are close
It could be right but CMC always has the most ominous ice look in any situation imo.... I'd cut those totals in half but still I think the idea of a possible "more than just a nuisance" event is ramping up
If trends colder, maybe the Northwest Midlands of South Carolina may see something?
Not with this one. Not enough cold air.
We don't get winter weather friend. Only the shaft.
Yeah, it just supports the slightly colder trend of the other models this morning. Nobody should trust that map verbatim.
Still several model runs until game time. This could turn ugly in a heartbeat the way temps are adjusting. We will all go over to rain at some point, but when? That is the question