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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Blue_Ridge_Escarpment, Feb 2, 2018.

  1. Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

    Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Member

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    Potential In-situ CAD situation setting up.
     
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  2. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Could get dicey, we all know how models struggle with CAD especially a in-sut CAD, these can sometimes be "over performers". If ice is what you want bring it home... lol
     
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  3. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    If this over performs I hope it's more sleet than ZR.
     
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  4. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

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    12z RGEM is definitely colder than the 6z. Here's the last frame just as precip is moving in. Waiting on tropical tidbits to finish so we can compare to 6z at the same time.
    [​IMG]
    Dew points
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    Don't look now, 12z RGEM keeping upstate CAD favored areas below freezing at least until 12z Sunday (the end of the run) Major hit incoming
     
  6. StoneMtnWx

    StoneMtnWx Supporter Member

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    12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
    Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.

    45 pre.png 45 temp.png 48 pre.png 48 temp.png 51 pre.png 51 temp.png
    54 pre.png 54 temps.png
     
  7. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    If temps remain a degree above freezing on the runs after some icy precipitation, they likely could be wrong and could verify at or below freezing given the CAD. Definitely have to watch this.
     
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  9. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    image.png 12z RGEM is nothing to sneeze at
     
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  10. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    Looks like a little bit of an eastward trend with the frozen precip. Have to see if it continues further east.
     
  11. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    This is at the end of the run and it's still showing zr at that time in NE Ga, upstate SC and western NC....
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. GeorgiaGirl

    GeorgiaGirl Member

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    FWIW: The RGEM has always had runs that go further than 48 on TT, it's just every now and again that it does. (I think 0z or 12z? or maybe the opposite lol)

    GFS is a front end thump btw, which may have been an improvement from recently.
     
  13. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    If the CAD gets any stronger than forecast by the NAM and RGEM could even get dicey as far east as the Triangle. Some appreciable ZR is becoming probable if not likely for the Triad the way we're going with this
     
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  14. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    I know that has happened before in the Triangle. I remember one time well when I was in 9th grade. It was just supposed to be rain in Durham, but it ended up being freezing rain, and I got stuck on the school bus that morning because the bus couldn't make it up a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take us home, and there were wrecks all over the place.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
  15. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    This could go from 0 to bad in a hurry! Luckily it's a weekend!
     
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  16. MichaelJ

    MichaelJ Member

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    Yeah we won't know for sure as the temps would be marginal at best from foothills to the Triangle (in NC and NW SC and possible even NGa) but it will either be Ice or rain, not seeing much chance of snow in these areas
     
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  17. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Looks like the 12Z models are all coming in colder so far. Not a good trend unless the 925 mb layer is subfreezing. FFC also is anticipating ice in the CAD areas up to 0.15".
     
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  18. Wildboutsnow

    Wildboutsnow Supporter Member

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    :weenie:Hello new thread...❤️
     
  19. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Good thing is the H is on the move so no continuous steady feed of cold, dry air so the zr should be self limited..... still "damage" could be done by then in some areas. .25 seems like a real possibility for some of those areas now and that I believe is Warning criteria for most on here
     
  20. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    I think 0.25 of freezing rain is when you start to get damage to trees and power outages.
     
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  21. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    It may be on the move, but it's tapping arctic air as it does, which is definitely going to make the CAD areas cold. How cold remains to be seen as the runs went colder at 12Z. If we keep seeing this, there are going to be some widespread issues.
     
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  22. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    I completely agree with this and I was just looking at DP's, they are low teens just prior to precip entering so I certainly see potential for temps to be a degree or two colder...
     
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  23. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

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    Canadian looks to tick colder and more ominous:
    [​IMG]
     
  24. NorthGaWinter4

    NorthGaWinter4 Member

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    Lol @ForsythSnow we are close
     
  25. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    It could be right but CMC always has the most ominous ice look in any situation imo.... I'd cut those totals in half but still I think the idea of a possible "more than just a nuisance" event is ramping up
     
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  26. Meteorologist1999

    Meteorologist1999 WeathermanTY Member

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    If trends colder, maybe the Northwest Midlands of South Carolina may see something?
     
  27. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

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    Not with this one. Not enough cold air.
     
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  28. SCweather

    SCweather Member

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    We don't get winter weather friend. Only the shaft.
     
  29. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

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    Yeah, it just supports the slightly colder trend of the other models this morning. Nobody should trust that map verbatim.
     
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  30. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    Still several model runs until game time. This could turn ugly in a heartbeat the way temps are adjusting. We will all go over to rain at some point, but when? That is the question
     

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