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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA

Anyone have Euro access? I'm curious if it trended a tick colder like the other modeling so far today?
It appears so. 12Z on top, 0Z bottom.
ecmwf_t2m_se_54.png
ecmwf_t2m_se_66.png
 
It appears so. 12Z on top, 0Z bottom.
ecmwf_t2m_se_54.png
ecmwf_t2m_se_66.png
Thanks! That's a 1-3 degree drop around the edges. I believe the Euro usually runs a little warm at the surface in these types of setups too. Still quite a few model cycles left. I wonder if they will slowly cool until go time???
 
Do not need any trees downor power out.
Hope you are feeling better
Thanks ... just don't let anyone tell you that this year's flu shot is worth a hoot ... :(
Some of the meanest severe I've seen up your way was near Neel Gap ... holy cow can a SW wind whip in there ...
Back to bed; up for an hour and am afraid to say more lest it be garbage ...
 
Thanks ... just don't let anyone tell you that this year's flu shot is worth a hoot ... :(
Some of the meanest severe I've seen up your way was near Neel Gap ... holy cow can a SW wind whip in there ...
Back to bed; up for an hour and am afraid to say more lest it be garbage ...
Did not get shot, caught some bug but not flu.
 
Is it too much to ask to hear a handful of pingers to close winter out with a bang? Beats rain! Short range modes still keying in on onset frozen precip for the favored CAD region down into the upstate
 
For Cen NC folks I noticed on the 18z 3k NAM it's sneaking in some moisture off the Atlantic to get some patchy light zr a little sooner and a smidge further east. Nothing significant but something to monitor

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For those wondering, CAE is not part of this. Here is a snippet from KCAE, infact:


"Have
indicated all rain in the current forecast given latest
guidance. Models have continued to trend warmer with lows
Saturday night ranging from the low 30s along and north of I-20
to the upper 30s in the southern CSRA."
 
For those wondering, CAE is not part of this. Here is a snippet from KCAE, infact:


"Have
indicated all rain in the current forecast given latest
guidance. Models have continued to trend warmer with lows
Saturday night ranging from the low 30s along and north of I-20
to the upper 30s in the southern CSRA."
We weren't man. We don't get appreciable winter weather anymore. Can't even get ice anymore. Which no one really wants in the first place.
 
We weren't man. We don't get appreciable winter weather anymore. Can't even get ice anymore. Which no one really wants in the first place.

Yep and now modeling is getting warmer and less Gulf tracks to support anything for us. Most of the systems are late bloomers, crap half-phasers, and inland runners through 384 hours of the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm!
 
Could be trouble for the piedmont into western NC and SC. Looks like Charlotte gets the worst of it.

zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Yep and now modeling is getting warmer and less Gulf tracks to support anything for us. Most of the systems are late bloomers, crap half-phasers, and inland runners through 384 hours of the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm!
Nope, pretty sad. Very sad.
 
For Cen NC folks I noticed on the 18z 3k NAM it's sneaking in some moisture off the Atlantic to get some patchy light zr a little sooner and a smidge further east. Nothing significant but something to monitor

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I want to see how the wedge erodes Sunday. 3k nam at one point has rdu at 50 gso at 39. Big bust potential around here. If we get drizzle and rain Sunday morning I have a hard time seeing 50 at rdu

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RGEM just said-" things just got real"
 
Yep and now modeling is getting warmer and less Gulf tracks to support anything for us. Most of the systems are late bloomers, crap half-phasers, and inland runners through 384 hours of the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm!
It doesn't do any good to have 300+ hour GFS snowstorms, because they NEVER materialize! So just torch runs and apps rubbers, are great, because they give no false hope!
 
The 3km NAM wants to develop an embedded squall line along the edge of the very sharp CAD boundary late on Sunday. Can't entirely rule out a threat for severe weather in this case especially those along and just east of the boundary. There will be an area of significantly enhanced storm relative helicity and baroclinicity wherever the SE edge of the CAD dome sets up
hires_ref_raleigh_52.png
 
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