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Tropical TS Jerry

It’s unfortunate, if Jerry was more south, it would have a low chance at making it the the SE, but a better one vs a N track, but would likely be strong with that little area of very favorable upper level conditions, so there almost no possible way this could make it to the SE US as a weak, messy rain maker, it would likely be a buzsaw with a that look (anti cyclonic flow atop the storm) but that tutt cell will possibly add to that NE sling, don’t think this thing will affect the US with that weakness DCB279C9-E96C-4CF3-9E33-A1C55F446094.jpeg
 
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snowcool776 said:
OK, I am new to these techy terms. What is Happy Hour?
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18Z run of models, which come out at ~ 6PM, which happens to be around the time for Happy Hour. Also, the 18Z models have a reputation for more wacky runs than normal (example: the "drunk 18Z GFS") though that can't be easily proven if true.
 
GaWx said:
18Z run of models, which come out at ~ 6PM, which happens to be around the time for Happy Hour. Also, the 18Z models have a reputation for more wacky runs than normal (example: the "drunk 18Z GFS") though that can't be easily proven if true.
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Oh ok. I thought 18Z on tropicaltidbits was 2pm EDT.
 
Tropical Storm Watches issued for Jerry. This means more updates and info for us.
 
Henry2326 said:
Yeah.....he hasn't bought in yet either.....


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Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s unfortunate, if Jerry was more south, it would have a low chance at making it the the SE, but would likely be strong with that little area of very favorable upper level conditions, so there almost no possible way this could make it to the SE US as a weak, messy rain maker, it would likely be a buzsaw with a that look (anti cyclonic flow atop the storm) but that tutt cell will possibly add to that NE sling, don’t think this thing will affect the US with that weakness View attachment 23705
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Models have done horribly with Intensity regarding small systems. Look at Dorian for example. If the stronger members keep the storm further south we could be in business potentially trending towards the US.
 
GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
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Larry, You underestimate the %. ;) Phil
 
GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
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I am not going to say I want a hurricane to hit, because honestly if I had the power to make one hit versus not I would pick not every single time....but I don't have that power.....and I live in eastern NC, I have been in the eye of Bertha and the core of Floyd, Fran ( gusted over 100 ) and Irene......and numerous other lesser hits....I am a unabashed wind junkie I love the sound of the wind blasting in a hurricane, or severe storm or strong Nor'easter or even those blue bird sky windy as hell mixing days we get in March....so while I don't wish for it you can bet your ass when it does hit I am out in my front yard with my Kestrel.....I got a 76mph reading on it in Irene in my YARD.....she mixed them gust down well....

To keep this on topic Jerry sure is not looking like the "fix" my wind junkie habit needs....
 
Downeastnc said:
I am not going to say I want a hurricane to hit, because honestly if I had the power to make one hit versus not I would pick not every single time....but I don't have that power.....and I live in eastern NC, I have been in the eye of Bertha and the core of Floyd, Fran ( gusted over 100 ) and Irene......and numerous other lesser hits....I am a unabashed wind junkie I love the sound of the wind blasting in a hurricane, or severe storm or strong Nor'easter or even those blue bird sky windy as hell mixing days we get in March....so while I don't wish for it you can bet your ass when it does hit I am out in my front yard with my Kestrel.....I got a 76mph reading on it in Irene in my YARD.....she mixed them gust down well....

To keep this on topic Jerry sure is not looking like the "fix" my wind junkie habit needs....
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intervention and rehab ...

got just the fix - 10 days, no power; FEMA camped in the front yard for 4 days rehabbing lines; need I ...

Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 7.18.21 PM.png
 
pcbjr said:
intervention and rehab ...

got just the fix - 10 days, no power; FEMA camped in the front yard for 4 days rehabbing lines; need I ...

View attachment 23708
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I went through Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene...no power after Floyd for a week, Irene caused the house to have to be reshingled, I am well versed with hurricanes and the aftermath....I cant do anything to change the outcome...all I can do is be ready and then witness the raw power of mother nature in a way that most people never do....
 
Jerry sure looks like he is moving more west than north pretty much right down 15N...though it is admittedly hard to be sure where his true "center" is.....
 
Downeastnc said:
I went through Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene...no power after Floyd for a week, Irene caused the house to have to be reshingled, I am well versed with hurricanes and the aftermath....I cant do anything to change the outcome...all I can do is be ready and then witness the raw power of mother nature in a way that most people never do....
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Right on ... and do you want it again? Probably/obviously not, which was the whole point here, I think ... just some folks seem to revel in other folks' hurt ... and 'Canes hurt up, down and sideways (mostly the latter ...) ... ;)
 
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