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Tropical TS Jerry

metwannabe said:
Meh may have to time it just right those troughs that keep dropping through the NE but honestly unless some major changes looks like the ridge axis is good location to protect the SE from any TC. A deep south TC that runs through the Caribbean and IF it could survive could eventually impact western GOM I guess but Jerry ain't that storm imo
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I quickly looked at the members and I can't tell why the stronger members are further south but they start to diverge from the recurving ones day 3 so would think we see a shift one way or another on the EPS in the next couple of runs.

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KyloG said:
I quickly looked at the members and I can't tell why the stronger members are further south but they start to diverge from the recurving ones day 3 so would think we see a shift one way or another on the EPS in the next couple of runs.

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Yeah I noticed it was basically the stronger systems that tracked further west, pumping that ridge?
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I noticed it was basically the stronger systems that tracked further west, pumping that ridge?
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I guess, I couldn't tell. I wondered if the hemispheric pattern was slightly altered which allowed Jerry to becoming stronger but that change also forced it further south/west at the same time. Guess it shows how delicate it is...still thinks this safely recurves, but we shall see.
 
KyloG said:
I guess, I couldn't tell. I wondered if the hemispheric pattern was slightly altered which allowed Jerry to becoming stronger but that change also forced it further south/west at the same time. Guess it shows how delicate it is...still thinks this safely recurves, but we shall see.
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It should intensify quickly, the MJO is in one of the best phases for upward motion over the Atlantic.
 
From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving quite a bit south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?
 
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GaWx said:
From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving quite a bit south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?
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Idk about health, but the movement looks south of the track to me too. Seems to be more W than WNW. Also there's an upper level recon mission that just started for this storm, so we should get some data by 12Z or 18Z.
 
Per the 5 AM NHC track based on straight line interpolation, Jerry should be up to the 14.5-14.6 N area in latitude at 11 AM. I don’t think he’s going to be much above 14.3 N but I could be wrong. That would be about 20 miles south of the NHC/model consensus.That may not seem like a lot but that’s enough to make a nontrivial difference in model projections.
 
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GaWx said:
From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving quite a bit south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?
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Good catch. Looks that way to me:

ForecastTrackVerification_2019-09-18_1200Z_CIMSS.png
 
What's the deal with these tropical storms?

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Looking again at satellite loops, I think he’s degraded somewhat the last couple of hours though I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that as satellite pics can be deceiving. So, if he has degraded some, I wonder if that’s the reason he may be ~20 miles S of the NHC/model consensus. Does the steering for a weaker system in that area have less of a north component?
 
Looking at the visible it looks like the LLC is on the north side of the convection. Looks a little displaced from the MLC.
 
Turner Team said:
Looking at the visible it looks like the LLC is on the north side of the convection. Looks a little displaced from the MLC.
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I just saw an IR loop and it looks like he may have wobbled quite a bit north over the last hour. If so, he may be back on track if he was ever south of the track like I thought. Also, what you’re pointing out may be a reason I was deceived into thinking he was S of the projected track.

Edit: I now think he may actually be on track and up to 14.5 N already. I may have been deceived earlier. Let’s see what the NHC has at 11AM.
 
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GaWx said:
I just saw an IR loop and it looks like he may have wobbled quite a bit north over the last hour. If so, he may be back on track if he was ever south of the track like I thought. Also, what you’re pointing out may be a reason I was deceived into thinking he was S of the projected track.

Edit: I now think he may actually be on track and up to 14.5 N already. I may have been deceived earlier. Let’s see what the NHC has at 11AM.
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11 am has him at 14.6 n and up to 50 mph too.
 
Satellite loop looks like the center may have been slightly displaced to the north of that earlier intense "blob" of convection but now looks like it's trying to wrap around that center... actually looks like it might be getting better organized.

Also I see Recon doing upper air missions, I'd assume those will be in tonight's model output not that I'm expecting too much of a shift
 
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