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Tropical TS Jerry
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Some of this is likely due to the GEFS having an eastern trough bias whereas the EPS has had little or none of that bias of late. The 0Z EPS mean map you're showing is one that is indicative of danger for the SE US with a closeby TC but as usual the timing of ridge breakdowns is crucial.
Whereas the 0Z EPS suggests the CONUS is likely safe from TD 10, it actually has quite a few TCs for so far out in time from a followup wave. Note the return of a pretty strong WAR/SER as of day 12 and mainly Gulf powerful TCs 2 days later from some members. So, after Imelda, I’m thinking the biggest threat between now and the first few days of October is likely not from TD 10 but instead quite possibly from an as yet formed TC that may not form for awhile somewhere in the western basin:
Regarding the above Euro ens maps, check out day 10 of both the 12Z Euro and CMC as they both develop the followup wave to TD #10. The 12Z Euro day 10's new TC north of the Mona Passage is in a dangerous location for the CONUS as TD 10 has passed and the ridge is quickly rebuilding over the E US/W Atlantic. When a ridge is first rebuilding like that, it will usually have more of a chance to result in a block and have more lasting power than one that has been there a few days. I do think that day 10 12Z Euro TC would have soon turned left toward FL or further south. Some 0Z EPS members actually do form a TC near there then and they move mainly WNW. Most of those Gulf and vicinity TCs on that hour 336 map above are from that same wave. Because this thread is about TD 10, I may not go any further about this potential followup TC in this thread.
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1. Yeah, I count about 7 of the 51 from TD 10 that hit the CONUS, which is similar to the number on the 0Z. So, yes, not a done deal yet.
2. In case you or others didn't realize it: the 5 lows near, E, and S of Hispaniola on your 204 hour map are actually from the followup wave that I just referred to that I think may be more dangerous for the CONUS than TD 10 (near end of Sep to start of Oct).
I just noticed that followup wave...that was interesting for sure.
Downeastnc
Member
It would stay going west on that ICON setup as well.....
I remember when Florence was suppose to do this.....
I remember when Florence was suppose to do this.....
Florence had chances to escape but never did, but once it got to about Sept 9/10th the ridge over the NE was locked in. We don't have that with TD10, atleast not yet. I have learned to never say never.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah way to many people on this board and others like to speak in definite terms concerning weather and well that's just a stupid thing to do in most cases....the upper setup does look like it would be tough to get a US landfall but the models have not been exactly crushing it with the upper level features in the longer range lately either thus the fairly large mid range track changes for Dorian and to a lesser extent Humberto.....
That's why I also don't like to speak in absolute terms but instead say things like 90% chance of no US hit, not currently feeling worried about a US hit, feeling that laying $50 to win $10 is a good bet for no hit, etc, while at the same time saying still not a done deal. I still feel this same way about TD #10 as of now.
Very True, Dorian was supposed to hit FL and into the GOM as was Humberto. I do notice the 12z EPS is more favorable for a hit on the very long range should it continue to trend that way.
Downeastnc
Member
I agree given the data available a landfall seems very unlikely....Florence was suppose to turn out a couple of different times and at this stage of her life cycle was probably a 90% chance to miss.......all the models took her OTS well east of friggen Bermuda in the beginning....
This loop is nuts watching all the major shifts in track predictions as she kept not doing what she was suppose to.......
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/FLORENCE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
Henry2326
Member
5:00 pm discussion comment...
The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge.
The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.
The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge.
The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.
Downeastnc
Member
That's getting awful close to 75W.......if we get another storm inside 75W and north of Florida and it gets OTS without a landfall on the SE that will be pretty amazingly lucky....75W 25N is kind of a benchmark once west and north of that point it has to go east to miss land.
Brent
Member
Not buying it yet but the end of the HWRF would be problematic its also further south than the NHC
Henry2326
Member
NHC comments about it in discussion but didn't go with it. Will be interesting to watch.
Could this be what the EPS outlier members are catching on to?
Brent
Member
Havent looked at it too close but I'm sure it has something to do with it no doubt Humberto leaves a weakness and honestly i still lean towards a recurve but its a long way to go and things will definitely have to be watched
ryanardo
Member
Most likely out to sea with the fronts coming through and a NE HP building in, if not I am wrong, gulf would pressume more probable than a hit on the east coast