Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

[CoreyTheSecond]

So snow chances are looking better in north GA? Guess it's still just token flakes. Oh well. Better than nothing.

 

[Storm5]

12z gefs pathetic . The euro was right all along and clearly the NAM is wrong

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[Webberweather53]

It honestly amazes me that winters like 1935-36 even exist in the historical record with as infrequent as it snows down here, especially of late... 5 significant accumulating snows in RDU in one winter is virtually unheard of, much less to have one every month of the winter.

 

[Shawn]

Okay. I never got around to posting it, nor do I believe in it but here are the COBB output numbers for CAE:

12z NAM:

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
170312/0800Z  44  05009KT  42.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
170312/0900Z  45  05009KT  38.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
170312/1000Z  46  04009KT  37.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    0|  0|100
170312/1100Z  47  03011KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100
170312/1200Z  48  02011KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.170    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49    6|  4| 90
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170312/1300Z  49  02011KT  34.2F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71   31| 23| 46
170312/1400Z  50  02013KT  33.5F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.249    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95   45| 37| 18
170312/1500Z  51  03012KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15   87|  0| 13
170312/1600Z  52  03011KT  31.9F  SNOW   14:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154   14:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31  100|  0|  0
170312/1700Z  53  04010KT  31.5F  SNPL   11:1| 1.7|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.147   13:1|  3.8|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 1.45   82| 18|  0
170312/1800Z  54  04009KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.063   13:1|  3.8|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 1.52    0|  0|100

12z GFS:

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
170312/0900Z  45  09003KT  44.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
170312/1200Z  48  05013KT  37.7F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    5|  8| 87
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170312/1500Z  51  06011KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|100
170312/1800Z  54  06009KT  40.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|  0
170312/2100Z  57  05009KT  42.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|  0
170313/0000Z  60  06006KT  41.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170313/0300Z  63  08005KT  37.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170313/0600Z  66  04006KT  36.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170313/0900Z  69  05008KT  36.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170313/1200Z  72  04010KT  34.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170313/1500Z  75  04013KT  36.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
170313/1800Z  78  03011KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09    0|  0|100
170313/2100Z  81  03013KT  36.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah I'm not sure why the NAM does it but in its longer range I think it strings out the precip for whatever reason. We're going to see the correct look shortly and that will be very light precip. The most likely best case is going to be a coating-1". Second system wins and NE/MA is fat and happy. :sad:

 

[olhausen]

So does anyone know why last nights euro gave us so much snow? I don't recall the euro ever giving us so much snow vs other models and being wrong so close to an event. I really thought I'd wake up to all the other models following the euro but boy was I wrong.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

So does anyone know why last nights euro gave us so much snow? I don't recall the euro ever giving us so much snow vs other models and being wrong so close to an event. I really thought I'd wake up to all the other models following the euro but boy was I wrong.

Tennessee might still be a decent spot. But if not, while I'd still trust the Euro over any other model, it's best to start looking at short range models this close. What the NAM shows early, not later is probably right and it's light precip at best. :\

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro is much better for far north GA into central SC with a further south track/colder push of the Arctic high/more wedging.

 

[Storm5]

12z euro

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[CoreyTheSecond]

The 12Z Euro is much better for far north GA into central SC with a further south track/colder push of the Arctic high/more wedging.

Well, maybe it's a trend

 

[Shawn]

Wave 1

 

[SD]

good lord the Euro 1004 east of Sav

 

[SD]

998 S of HSE E OF CHS OMG

 

[Webberweather53]

Good lord what a monster

 

[GaWx]

The mid-Atlantic is getting a huge snow on the 12Z Euro on 3/14. I hear the boos.

 

[WXinCanton]

Kaboom, that is the real deal there

 

[Webberweather53]

The Euro is going all in for Columbia, SC on wave 1.

 

[SD]

smash job for the mtns, foothills, nw piedmont and most of Va

 

[GaWx]

Foot+ totals per 12Z Euro clown for 3/14 for DCA-NYC-Boston!

 

[Rain Cold]

smash job for the mtns, foothills, nw piedmont and most of Va

Awesome! Raleigh is always too far north, south, east, or west to get any snow. Guess you don't owe me that steak now.