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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Tarheel1 said:
The coldest I get on the whole run of the 12Z GFS, is 28 degrees! December to remember!
#BACKLOADED! What a pile of ?! Long range model mirages disappearing again, like clockwork
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I've asked this before, but nobody ever answers: What is the expectation for December/the winter? I mean, not "I want 0 degrees and snow every day". But what is the real expectation?
 
Rain Cold said:
I've asked this before, but nobody ever answers: What is the expectation for December/the winter? I mean, not "I want 0 degrees and snow every day". But what is the real expectation?
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You didn’t ask me, but I will oblige: denture chattering cold like February 2014 coupled with a barrage of Jan 88’ paste bombs.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You didn’t ask me, but I will oblige: denture chattering cold like February 2014 coupled with a barrage of Jan 88’ paste bombs.
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Lol Ok but... That's not a legitimate expectation. I mean, what do we expect to happen for real?
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol Ok but... That's not a legitimate expectation. I mean, what do we expect to happen for real?
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Honestly, I would just like to see a trough set up in the east for weeks on end with the occasional ridge sliding through. I would love to be able to cycle through a 384hr map with a trough dominating the east coast from beginning to end.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've asked this before, but nobody ever answers: What is the expectation for December/the winter? I mean, not "I want 0 degrees and snow every day". But what is the real expectation?
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That's easy. No wintry precip. here is the expectation every year because most years get none.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Honestly, I would just like to see a trough set up in the east for weeks on end with the occasional ridge sliding through. I would love to be able to cycle through a 384hr map with a trough dominating the east coast from beginning to end.
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We see that multiple times per winter. We don't see it set up in reality very much, though. So when expectations get set for a continuously reloading eastern trough, I wonder about why that is the case, since that's something we hardly ever see?

GaWx said:
That's easy. No wintry precip. here is the expectation every year because most years get none.
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Probably why you're one of the least disappointed members.
 
Rain Cold said:
We see that multiple times per winter. We don't see it set up in reality very much, though. So when expectations get set for a continuously reloading eastern trough, I wonder about why that is the case, since that's something we hardly ever see?



Probably why you're one of the least disappointed members.
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I think most of us are here searching for that pattern we grew up hearing our grandpa talk about (not the 1930’s)
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol Ok but... That's not a legitimate expectation. I mean, what do we expect to happen for real?
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I always expect a up and down pattern in December, it wavers from early cold to warm to warm then cold. I expect no snow at all in December. All I want for December is to show me that January and February has promise. That’s what we all should be looking for.


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NoSnowATL said:
I always expect a up and down pattern in December, it wavers from early cold to warm to warm then cold. I expect no snow at all in December. All I want for December is to show me that January and February has promise. That’s what we all should be looking for.


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That seems reasonable.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've asked this before, but nobody ever answers: What is the expectation for December/the winter? I mean, not "I want 0 degrees and snow every day". But what is the real expectation?
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Good question! For me, seasonally cool temps, low 30s for lows, upper 50s for highs would be just about right, with a H5 pattern that under January conditions snow on us. I want to see that pattern start repeating and persisting through the month. So come January I can feel confident that the winter will be a good one.

No snow expectations save perhaps the last week in December. Anything earlier like last year is a rare phenomenon IMO.
 
I think we'll have more normal to below normal days than above normal days this December temp wise. I think we'll have at least one legit shot at a winter storm.
 
For the Triangle region of NC, in my 45 years of life I have come to expect some mild (60's), some cold (40's for highs), very transient with some opportunities for snow. I have endured some mild Christmas days which I don't like.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've asked this before, but nobody ever answers: What is the expectation for December/the winter? I mean, not "I want 0 degrees and snow every day". But what is the real expectation?
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I’ve just been hearing babble for about 2 weeks or so , about some early December super cold was coming , and -NAO coming, now it’s crickets and that GFS run takes us handily into early December and all I get out of this is a low of 28? That’s like 12 degrees below normal!? I just want the pooping models to nail a cold outbreak once , without it warming 10-15 degrees by go time, from what the models were showing! Wait we still have the CMC????
 
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Oh yippee! A severe thread! This winter is right on track! 10 days later, we get snow! When thunder roars, go indoors!??
 
whatalife said:
Carolina weather authority...


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Yeh there other post got the rounds big time on Facebook which basically looked like a copy cat of Brad P's outlook. I'd take 3-6 inches of snow and call that a massive win for CAE though.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I always expect a up and down pattern in December, it wavers from early cold to warm to warm then cold. I expect no snow at all in December. All I want for December is to show me that January and February has promise. That’s what we all should be looking for.


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what I am hoping. Weak ninos tend to get colder as the winter goes on, hoping the Dec pattern lines up with those composites.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’ve just been hearing babble for about 2 weeks or so , about some early December super cold was coming , and -NAO coming, now it’s crickets and that GFS run takes us handily into early December and all I get out of this is a low of 28? That’s like 12 degrees below normal!? I just want the pooping models to nail a cold outbreak once , without it warming 10-15 degrees by go time, from what the models were showing! Wait we still have the CMC????
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But you know they almost always overestimate cold outbreaks. You've been on these boards for years and have watched the models model cold pattern after cold pattern that almost always warm up and shorten in duration. So, it seems like it's not really reasonable to expect them to behave differently. You also have been around long enough to know the difference between someone hyping up a cold pattern (either in the real world for clicks or in message board land because they don't know what they're talking about) and someone discussing possibilities and what they'd "like to see happen".

Also, the other thing we know is that big snowstorms way out in modelland aren't going to happen, most likely. Even the ones modeled 48 hours out are probably going to move NW enough to screw us. I wish it was different, but we know it's not. Therefore, it seems unreasonable to expect things to turn out as modeled, regarding cold and snow.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've asked this before, but nobody ever answers: What is the expectation for December/the winter? I mean, not "I want 0 degrees and snow every day". But what is the real expectation?
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I'd like for once to have just a normal winter temp wise. Tired of blowtorching for 1 if not 2 of the 3 winter months every single year!
And would love to see a double digit snow year. Something that used to occur very frequently for GSP and CLT and probably RDU as well. It's sad how much snowfall has declined but people still believe the last ten years have been snowy. Records indicate otherwise.
See CLT for example. Since the late 80s winter have been complete crap compared to the old days except for maybe what 3 years. Not a good look.IMG_20191108_121447.png
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I'd like for once to have just a normal winter temp wise. Tired of blowtorching for 1 if not 2 of the 3 winter months every single year!
And would love to see a double digit snow year. Something that used to occur very frequently for GSP and CLT and probably RDU as well. It's sad how much snowfall has declined but people still believe the last ten years have been snowy. Records indicate otherwise.
See CLT for example. Since the late 80s winter have been complete crap compared to the old days except for maybe what 3 years. Not a good look.View attachment 26485
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I'd love to see a linear regression of that data ...
 
pcbjr said:
I'd love to see a linear regression of that data ...
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Me too. Unfortunately that is beyond my capabilities to create! Lol hopefully someone here can assist? I know all time average at CLT is still 5.6 even though the last 30 years is only 3.7 inches. So I'm guessing that 5.6 used to be a lot higher before the 1980s came around and we started the decline.
 
I'm just a little annoyed because people were hyping early December so much and now it's not even that cold I guess. It fits the pattern of last winter where all the hope was long range only to vanish.

I've never had hope for December though really because it's been a very long time since I've seen frozen precip during it
 
Brent said:
I'm just a little annoyed because people were hyping early December so much and now it's not even that cold I guess. It fits the pattern of last winter where all the hope was long range only to vanish.

I've never had hope for December though really because it's been a very long time since I've seen frozen precip during it
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But hyping is what we do best in the SE!
 
Robert West said:
Yeh there other post got the rounds big time on Facebook which basically looked like a copy cat of Brad P's outlook. I'd take 3-6 inches of snow and call that a massive win for CAE though.
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Take the low end of those and its certainly possible. CAE had 4.2 in 13-14. 6 in Charlotte is more than doable. Greenville is laughable though. 15 inches? Yeah cut that in half if it's a good winter.
 
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