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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Well.. the home weather model on the raspberry works lol....

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Rain Cold said:
It's pretty insidious. I am pretty confident that it didn't just come out of a bat. My guess is it is the result of something worked on in a biolab.

Anyway, there are a couple of really important things to keep in mind, one of which you said. You can have it, carry it, and spread it (in some cases dramatically so) for anywhere from 3 - 27 days, all while not knowing you have it. The other thing is that it is extremely contagious....much, much more contagious than the flu. These two things virtually ensure that it will spread around the world.

Other items of note are the fact that the Case Fatality Rate appears to be between 2-3% (compared with 0.1% for the normal flu). This may drop as more reliable data comes out. Also, the serious complication rate is somewhere between 15-20%. That means medical intervention (hospital stay, ICU bed, respirator, etc.). And as you pointed out, most of the deaths occur with older people and people who have preexisting health issues. One other important note: We have no previous exposure (as a human race) to this virus. There is no herd immunity. There are no natural firewalls to it.

Mutation is also possible. Many viruses mutate. That is pretty common, actually. It can become more or less infectious and more or less virulent (deadly) or any combination of those things. So far, they say that it hasn't mutated. But the more people it infects, the higher the probability of mutation.

So back to the case fatality rate (CFR). This is going to be directly related to the above parameters PLUS the availability of quality care. It's easy to broad brush certain countries as having a subpar healthcare system, like Cambodia, or having a great healthcare system, like the US. In that case, you would expect the CFR to be higher in Cambodia than in the US. That is a fair conclusion. But the wildcard is the word "availability". A significant and rapid increase in cases will overload any system. There aren't enough ICU beds in the US, or anywhere else for that matter, to accommodate 15% of a rapidly growing case load. That fact is critical to understand.

The last thing to keep in mind is the fact that there are many places where this thing exists that do not have the capability to test for it or haven't begun broad testing for it yet. Most cases are mild. So think how easy it is for a person walking around with what they feel is just a cold to spread this to someone else who spreads it to someone else who then gets really sick and goes into a medical center who has the ability to and decides to test for it. Right now, it's not common practice to test for it where there is no outbreak.

The bottom line is that it is in a lot of places going undetected right now. It is likely here in the US in that fashion. The CDC is implementing testing in certain states for anyone who has flu-like symptoms, but that isn't in place yet, I don't think.

Is it time to panic? No. But will this will get here, if it's not here already. You can, if you choose to watch and listen, hear the messaging slowly changing from leadership and authorities. When it's time to get really concerned, it will be too late to do the things you want to do. It's good to start to get your mind around what you need if you feel compelled (or are compelled) to stay in the house for a month or two. There's no need to run for the hills, but having basic medical supplies and foods that can sustain you for a period of time makes practical sense. So does having masks, gloves, disinfectants, etc.

Hopefully, we don't end up with a severe problem. But this virus is the real deal. Look at the global response. Learn the facts about the disease, which, while not the most deadly virus in history, is certainly a type of virus that we have not had to deal with in a very, very long time.
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Take a gander.


nypost.com

Opinion | Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab

At an emergency meeting in Beijing held last Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke about the need to contain the coronavirus and set up a system to prevent similar epidemics in the future. A nati…
nypost.com nypost.com
 
Winter has ended. Mtns only. Dry clipper poss at times but nothing widespread sig East of Wilkesboro. The last event was the highlight hope you enjoed the ride please come again. All clear.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Winter has ended. Mtns only. Dry clipper poss at times but nothing widespread sig East of Wilkesboro. The last event was the highlight hope you enjoed the ride please come again. All clear.
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I'm with you birdman. I think it's pretty much over, especially outside of NC!
 
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