1. In his Saturday Summary today, JB is suggesting the E US MAY still have a cold March. Note that he has finally given up on his cold winter forecast. He’s blaming warm W Pacific tropical waters.
2. In his video now that he’s already given up on this winter being cold, he gave a hint that next winter will be cold in the E US based on a CFSv2 projection of warmest water moving to where he thought it would be this winter. He thinks that would put the mean trough in the east instead of in the west.
Edit: Why should we even believe the CFSv2 SST forecast? That warmth in the W PAC isn’t going to go away easily. I mean that’s what screwed up JB for this winter. But he’s considering again going with the model after being fooled? He doesn’t make sense imo.
2. In his video now that he’s already given up on this winter being cold, he gave a hint that next winter will be cold in the E US based on a CFSv2 projection of warmest water moving to where he thought it would be this winter. He thinks that would put the mean trough in the east instead of in the west.
Edit: Why should we even believe the CFSv2 SST forecast? That warmth in the W PAC isn’t going to go away easily. I mean that’s what screwed up JB for this winter. But he’s considering again going with the model after being fooled? He doesn’t make sense imo.
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