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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Shawn said:
Last night, there were many people speaking in literals how the cold air was underdone and how the snow line would sneak well below the Upstate into the Greenwood area. There were others guaranteeing there would likely be a historic Winter storm in other areas. I hope people didn't read too much into that, because there was never anything that would indicate that to happen, except a NAM model that is known to overdo snowfall accumulation.

A near real time model was on our local news tonight, literally covering the entire state in snow on the back-end, and of course, it made no meteorological sense. These things are tools, and soundings definitely showed, drizzle at best with some sleet mixed in. The threat for the Midlands of SC getting a big hit never existed. The modeling just decided to spit out a few wonky solutions for us, many days ago.


Hopefully, members will take a lesson in many cases here and stop following the weenie runs of modeling. @Rain Cold made a perfect point about choosing the lowest snowfall accumulation, and hoping for the best for the most part. There are so many processes going on in the South that impede appreciable snowfall & accumulation. Using computer models as forecasts, instead of as tools, is always going to disappoint.
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Actually I think you should take some lessons from today as well. You constantly were disregarding any snowfall output larger than a couple inches. The NAM was not alone all short range guidance gave many areas a significant snow event and even globals were trending that direction As well. You were very adamant about a novelty event and that it would be mostly rain for a ton of us. We barely saw rain here and was mostly sleet to start then snow for most of the event. While yes I agree even I wanted to overlook the amount of melting we would see from trivial things like kuchera and warm ground temps and time of day and all that stuff I can agree that I let my weenie winter weather side of me blindside me on those realities. But I think you should also learn some lessons tonight as well. About taking short range models a little more seriously like the NAM and not putting so much stock in globals. The NAM was the only one with this sort of snow state wide and was consistent with its output from even its 84 hour range. I think there’s something for everyone to take away from this event.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Actually I think you should take some lessons from today as well. You constantly were disregarding any snowfall output larger than a couple inches. The NAM was not alone all short range guidance gave many areas a significant snow event and even globals were trending that direction As well. You were very adamant about a novelty event and that it would be mostly rain for a ton of us. We barely saw rain here and was mostly sleet to start then snow for most of the event. While yes I agree even I wanted to overlook the amount of melting we would see from trivial things like kuchera and warm ground temps and time of day and all that stuff I can agree that I let my weenie winter weather side of me blindside me on those realities. But I think you should also learn some lessons tonight as well. About taking short range models a little more seriously like the NAM and not putting so much stock in globals. The NAM was the only one with this sort of snow state wide and was consistent with its output from even its 84 hour range. I think there’s something for everyone to take away from this event.
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- Obviously, my entire post was a lecture in taking lessons from the event, so obviously I would learn from it too.

- I disregarded monstrous 10-inch+ amounts, and looks like that was a fair assessment.

- I never once said anyone in North Carolina would see predominantly rain. I think you have me confused with someone else on that. I was quite adamant about a novelty event, in the Midlands of South Carolina (at best). I did mention the area of Charlotte a few times, because it showed signs of mixing problems.

- The NAM was not alone with the 10-inch+ amounts? Are you sure? Maybe I missed it because I wasn't hyper-focused on your back yard that you seem to always talk about. If you believe anything you see from the HRRR/NAM/Even Globals from the Weathernerds Precipitation Type maps, then don't.
 
NoSnowATL said:
4bccc90234f6df206af28db574c4d5eb.jpg


Well that didn’t last long, at least the lake effect snow is still showing up south of Lanier.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Wow that looks eerily like today's system!
 
Shawn said:
- Obviously, my entire post was a lecture in taking lessons from the event, so obviously I would learn from it too.

- I disregarded monstrous 10-inch+ amounts, and looks like that was a fair assessment.

- I never once said anyone in North Carolina would see predominantly rain. I think you have me confused with someone else on that. I was quite adamant about a novelty event, in the Midlands of South Carolina (at best).

- The NAM was not alone with the 10-inch+ amounts? Are you sure? Maybe I missed it because I wasn't hyper-focused on your back yard that you seem to always talk about. If you believe anything you see from the HRRR/NAM/Even Globals from the Weathernerds Precipitation Type maps, then don't.
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Plenty of ensembles showed the potential along with the HRRR even right as the event was unfolding at least for coastal plain areas .. I always bring up my area but never try to hyper-focus on it .. my point was it seemed like you were calling everyone out for not easily seeing the writing on the wall when the writing was in hieroglyphics (hard to tell what was truly going to happen with all the different models spitting out all the different solutions event a day before event) and it seemed like you weren’t giving constructive criticism for yourself in how you disregarded the Short range models as much as you did when in reality they did a pretty darn good job compared to the globals ... in no way am I trying to be rude or hateful in my comments just want to keep everyone honest and straight forward. Much respect for you sir and much respect for the amazing forum you’ve been able to create for all of us.. truly one of the greatest things I’ve discovered in the weather community was this forum .. I feel as if I can be myself in the way I love weather with many people who feel the same as me.. also this gives us great information from true meteorologists about upcoming events and I learn much from these people as well. Again I thank you for that
 
I have seriously been wondering if South Carolina will ever see another big snowstorm again. We all know the northern upstate near the state line gets decent snows from time to time. But will people below the I85 line ever see a big snow again? I’m talking like 5+ inches. I remember getting big snows around here when I was a kid in the 90s. But it seems like it has gotten less and less over the years.
 
Doubt it. Maybe wait on the solar minimum to peak and then maybe the rain/snow line will dip down to Newberry. I don’t even get big events up here in Greenville county anymore. But it does snow. Every year
 
I know we have recorded history of weather but I wonder if we’ve let the “ back in the good old days” memories or stories from others distort our expectations for snow today.

I grew up in Laurens. I live in west Columbia now. I don’t remember big snows every year when I was a child. I remember some Christmas seasons that were hot and some Easters that were cold.

Yes I remember snows but it wasn’t 2-3 times a year. More times than not I remember snow in the forecast to only to get up the next morning finding out no snow and school was still in session. And this was back in the 70s and 80s.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Plenty of ensembles showed the potential along with the HRRR even right as the event was unfolding at least for coastal plain areas .. I always bring up my area but never try to hyper-focus on it .. my point was it seemed like you were calling everyone out for not easily seeing the writing on the wall when the writing was in hieroglyphics (hard to tell what was truly going to happen with all the different models spitting out all the different solutions event a day before event) and it seemed like you weren’t giving constructive criticism for yourself in how you disregarded the Short range models as much as you did when in reality they did a pretty darn good job compared to the globals ... in no way am I trying to be rude or hateful in my comments just want to keep everyone honest and straight forward. Much respect for you sir and much respect for the amazing forum you’ve been able to create for all of us.. truly one of the greatest things I’ve discovered in the weather community was this forum .. I feel as if I can be myself in the way I love weather with many people who feel the same as me.. also this gives us great information from true meteorologists about upcoming events and I learn much from these people as well. Again I thank you for that
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modernweenie
 
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