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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Just goes to show you we really don't know what is going to happen when it comes to winter storms here. It's crazy, we do all this with following the models, and it can go either way. Mother nature is just going to do what it's going to do, and it is just hard for the models to get where the snow will be and how much around here.

With that said, the models look intriguing for the end of next week. Can't wait to do it all over again!
 
CyclonicFury said:
I'll up this winter to a D+. This is more snow than I had in winters 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16 and 2016-17. I don't have a reason to complain about a lack of snow for the rest of the winter. I'll take 3" of wet powder any day
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I think your grade will be upgraded more before the end of this winter. Mark my words! :D
 
I'm still holding steady at C+ for Chattanooga. One short-lived but utterly beautiful heavy snow storm upgraded it from a solid F to that point. Hoping end of Feb, early Mar holds some more surprises...
 
Last night, there were many people speaking in literals how the cold air was underdone and how the snow line would sneak well below the Upstate into the Greenwood area. There were others guaranteeing there would likely be a historic Winter storm in other areas. I hope people didn't read too much into that, because there was never anything that would indicate that to happen, except a NAM model that is known to overdo snowfall accumulation.

A near real time model was on our local news tonight, literally covering the entire state in snow on the back-end, and of course, it made no meteorological sense. These things are tools, and soundings definitely showed, drizzle at best with some sleet mixed in. The threat for the Midlands of SC getting a big hit never existed. The modeling just decided to spit out a few wonky solutions for us, many days ago.


Hopefully, members will take a lesson in many cases here and stop following the weenie runs of modeling. @Rain Cold made a perfect point about choosing the lowest snowfall accumulation, and hoping for the best for the most part. There are so many processes going on in the South that impede appreciable snowfall & accumulation. Using computer models as forecasts, instead of as tools, is always going to disappoint.
 
Storm5 said:
The euro was one of the first models that showed this system last week

But I a kinda agree with you . The nam was consistent with the system but will end up busting horribly with the amounts which we’ve seen it do over and over throughout the years


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Looking at snow depth maps on the NAM vs snowfall maps it didn't bust all that bad. It actually got my area almost exactly right. Granted it was a different aspect of the storm vs the East side of the Apps.
 
Shawn said:
Hopefully, members will take a lesson in many cases here and stop following the weenie runs of modeling. @Rain Cold made a perfect point about choosing the lowest snowfall accumulation, and hoping for the best for the most part. There are so many processes going on in the South that impede appreciable snowfall & accumulation. Using computer models as forecasts, instead of as tools, is always going to disappoint.
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Unfortunately, what you just stated and what Rain Cold said last night will fall on deaf ears. I actually took that same approach re: Rain Cold about four years ago. It's the wise thing to do and it also won't set you up for disappointment.

There's this thing when snow is involved where many folks can't or won't think clearly.
 
ColaSnow said:
Unfortunately, what you just stated and what Rain Cold said last night will fall on deaf ears. I actually took that same approach re: Rain Cold about four years ago. It's the wise thing to do and it also won't set you up for disappointment.

There's this thing when snow is involved where many folks can't or won't think clearly.
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After living in CAEHELL for the last decade and watching how our Winters have turned out, I've learned to only use pessimism and figure out how a Winter storm won't happen here, instead of trying to will it in with "what ifs".

I don't care if the synoptic setup is absolutely perfect on the models anymore, I will always do my best to find a way that it will not happen. A lot of people from the area have begun to get annoyed with my pessimism, but it is what it is.

I hug the Euro so tightly, because it does a fine job for this area, for the most part in Winter. When that model's ensemble starts to show a hint of something realistic here, I do get a little more excited.
 
Shawn said:
After living in CAEHELL for the last decade and watching how our Winters have turned out, I've learned to only use pessimism and figure out how a Winter storm won't happen here, instead of trying to will it in with "what ifs".
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I think you and many others, folks in NC as well, think the same way. Go look back at reports and cliff jumping from several people in SC AND NC. Other than Brick and a handful of others, many were climbing the cliff whilst talking themselves how things would turn out badly.

It sucks but it seems like that's the times we're in.
 
My forecasting was sup par as I tend to get too caught up in run to run variability, but the pattern recognition was on point

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Also, Euro nailed this one from long range in my opinion. Hate away. It’s still the best thing out there and it’s not even close.
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BirdManDoomW said:
Brad Panovich is claiming victory. Now Hold my Bo ice tea. Well go(inserted clean version) I wish he would stop lying. He said bread&milk storm and told schools to shutdown. Over this? I wish he had higher standards because he is altering plans of families and hurting local economies of the Charlotte metro market. There is a big difference in playing it safe and being wrong to cause panic. If you would like to further this conversation let’s move it over to banter. Thank-you.
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Actually you are way wrong on this .. all week he’s been downplaying the event saying it will most likely be nothing and most will melt .. he began latching on to maybe a bit more of accumulation last night and today.. but even then it was very downplayed and only thing he was talking about was the black ice would be the biggest problem for most Friday morning and Saturday morning which is 100% correct .. so no I think ur statement is grossly incorrect
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Actually you are way wrong on this .. all week he’s been downplaying the event saying it will most likely be nothing and most will melt .. he began latching on to maybe a bit more of accumulation last night and today.. but even then it was very downplayed and only thing he was talking about was the black ice would be the biggest problem for most Friday morning and Saturday morning which is 100% correct .. so no I think ur statement is grossly incorrect
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Exactly, I was aggravated earlier in week bc he was being so conservative and not telling me what my weenie side wanted to hear.
 
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