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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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NAM is just coming back to reality and aligning with the other models. When the NAM went north and nothing joined it that was a big red flag that it was over amplified. If any other model on earth had gone as far north and wet as the NAM it would have been slightly more believable.
It still might be, who knows. We can still hope for the last minute NW trend, or that precip overperforms as it often has this winter with our plentiful rainstorms. The Gulf and Atlantic must be locked and losses with plenty of energy considering how warm it's been (granted, models already take this into account).
Should be a decent event, regardless, especially more over towards you.
If it were currently 21 and not 41 we could easily pull off 6+
HRRR continues to show all rain in RDU through around 6pm. Really hope it is an issue with the p type maps on the model. But the HRRR does show daytime highs in the mid-40s which is warmer than other models.
I'm not surprised. The NWS knows what they're doing. Always go with them. They pretty much said non event by not issuing an advisory yesterday.
I will say the NAM led the way with the initial north jaunt when most other modeling was really flat and OTS, though, so at least it proved to be of some value. It seems it has played into its biases in the shorter range, though. Granted, I think we all knew those widespread 12"+ totals were just the NAM being the NAM.
I mean they didn't do so hot last time around, that's why I had doubts. I still think we'll see snow today
Maybe weenies will quit bashing the NWS after this. They know way more than us.
I think what happens is that expectations get set high by bullish talk and pretty snow maps. The conservative point of view tends to be cast aside as debbie downer talk.
The reality is, this is a less than ideal setup for a big SE winter storm. So, it doesn't seem wise to expect or forecast the ideal, high-end snow amounts. It's a lot easier to get less snow than more snow around here, by an order of magnitude even, in just about every situation. It's fun to wish for a lot of snow, but the weather doesn't really care much about what we wish it would do.
Flakes may fly but any accumulation is unlikely now.
My Redbone Coonhound has never seen or played in snow before. She’s 1.5 yrs old. I hope she gets the chance for some deep snow to play in.
whatalife
Moderator
@Jimmy Hypocracy would love this if it came true...LOL!
Flurry
Member
Beech Mountain getting some good snow...Will probably be the only snow I see this Winter ?
https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/beech-mountain-summit/
https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/beech-mountain-summit/
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southernskimmer
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Lot of factors working against us today, got a bad feeling about this one.
JHS
Member
About what we got a couple of weeks ago. Maybe if we are lucky. As far as getting over 1-2 inches of snow here in upstate SC it may be 10+ years before it happens again. We will not get an event like Jan 1988 in any of our lifetimes. Events like that are gone forever for this entire board.
Cadi40
Member
Not that this event is a washout, but I’m glad I didn’t let my wishcasting get to my rationality unlike a few others.
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