Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

[ATLwxfan]

I'm not sure this is actually a CAD situation. Not classic anyway. I wish it were. We're waiting for the cold to come over the mountains from the mid-west. Usually CAD has the high in the NE filtering down the east side of the apps.

Agree. I was just stating that it’s ability to forecast CAD was one of the reasons it was relied upon.


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[Nerman]

I'm not sure this is actually a CAD situation. Not classic anyway. I wish it were. We're waiting for the cold to come over the mountains from the mid-west. Usually CAD has the high in the NE filtering down the east side of the apps.

huh?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Everyone in upstate sc from Anderson up will have 2+ inches. The rain/snow line will be down in abbeville/greenwood area. The temps will drop much faster than the models are saying.

That would be nice. I don't really see it

 

[ryan1234]

Not that this setup is anywhere close to the Carolina Crusher in 2000. But what was the actual set up for that day? How much was predicted? I was young and didn't live in NC at that time. But I am somewhat curious. TIA!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Reading a lot of famous last words in the storm thread ? dis gone b good ?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Oh man the 18z HRRR is U G L Y for upstate and central NC

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Oh man the 18z HRRR is U G L Y for upstate and central NC

HRRRRRRRRR on TT is down. Throw me a rain map..?

 

[Brick Tamland]

MBY getting raked under a heavy band on the Happy Hour GFS. modernweenie

View attachment 35695

Haven't you heard? The Euro is the only model that matters. You know, the long range model that was the last one to jump on board with this.

 

[SD]

Reading a lot of famous last words in the storm thread ? dis gone b good ?

For some of us in the sleet zone tomorrow the rates will overcome statement will be put to the test. Thin warm nose with plenty of lift and some cape indicating convective elements in the precip. Do rates beat the warm nose?

 

[Rain Cold]

For some of us in the sleet zone tomorrow the rates will overcome statement will be put to the test. Thin warm nose with plenty of lift and some cape indicating convective elements in the precip. Do rates beat the warm nose?

Lol come on man.

 

[Stormdoc]

Yup. Maybe we should move to wake forest

As a central Wake county person my only hope is to have a winter storm that actually performs up to expectations from the weather models. When did we last over perform, 2010 maybe?

 

[jackendrickwx]

HRRRRRRRRR on TT is down. Throw me a rain map..?

 

[Stormdoc]

Any model spotting out good UVVs? Or no need to look for this until the heavy bands set up?

 

[SD]

As a central Wake county person my only hope is to have a winter storm that actually performs up to expectations from the weather models. When did we last over perform, 2010 maybe?

Its been a long time since we've had a system where imby I said wow we went over. Right off hand I'm drawing a blank

 

[superjames1992]

What's going on here? Lots of rain? IIRC, that model is awful at thermals.

 

[SD]

Any model spotting out good UVVs? Or no need to look for this until the heavy bands set up?

The NAM says the whole state

 

[jackendrickwx]

What's going on here? Lots of rain? IIRC, that model is awful at thermals.

Yeah essentially all rain

 

[superjames1992]

Yeah essentially all rain

Rather see that than suppressed OTS tbh.

 

[BHS1975]

Its been a long time since we've had a system where imby I said wow we went over. Right off hand I'm drawing a blank

Jan 2000


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[$alt]

That HRRR looks like what the Euro tried to do yesterday.