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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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KyloG said:
It's funny....if the Euro was on top of the NAM right now we would be lamenting the inevitable north trend inside 60 hours.
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That's because there's literally no way to win here. It seems near impossible to track a snowstorm for Raleigh with more than 24 hours lead time. If it looks good, it moves NW and screws us with rain. If it looks west, it stays west. If it looks SE, it stays SE. If every other event has trended north all winter, this one will stay south. If soundings support snow all the way from 240 through 6 hours out, a magical warm nose appears and we get sleet.

I'm standing by my early call from last week that we're going to be standing at OBX, squinting to see a few flakes mixed in with the sprinkles.
 
My Thursday plan is as follows.
1. Open strongest bottle of bourbon I have(currently 137 proof Elijah Craig Barrel Proof)
2. Sit on porch drinking said Bourbon.
3. Continue to drink said Bourbon until I see a snowflake or pass out.
 
It just feels odd to think we'll see a last second SE shift from the GFS and NAM when the opposite usually happens and the heaviest totals are north and west of forecast.
 
Man, if these models don't reverse course and bring us some good totals we will all be in danger of becoming misfits. The Breakfast Club of weather.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's because there's literally no way to win here. It seems near impossible to track a snowstorm for Raleigh with more than 24 hours lead time. If it looks good, it moves NW and screws us with rain. If it looks west, it stays west. If it looks SE, it stays SE. If every other event has trended north all winter, this one will stay south. If soundings support snow all the way from 240 through 6 hours out, a magical warm nose appears and we get sleet.

I'm standing by my early call from last week that we're going to be standing at OBX, squinting to see a few flakes mixed in with the sprinkles.
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Yep, I think we stay mostly dry, maybe a sprinkle. I think if snow falls at all it will in SE part of state, like SE of PGV. I know the Euro was really wrong about 10 days ago, but I find it hard to believe a model that good could this be wrong at 48 hours out on consecutive events.
 
I know it's the RAP model, but it shows a really nice setup for most of us. And this is kinda off topic, but does anyone have maps of the setup from the February 12-13th storm? I know this storm is nothing like that one but was that an overrunning event? I know we had a low in the Gulf too. But I was a lot younger then, so I don't really recall.
 
Thor said:
My Thursday plan is as follows.
1. Open strongest bottle of bourbon I have(currently 137 proof Elijah Craig Barrel Proof)
2. Sit on porch drinking said Bourbon.
3. Continue to drink said Bourbon until I see a snowflake or pass out.
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Good choice on the Elijah ??
 
Our local guys around CAE have basically said their in house "perfect winter weather" scenario isn't met. Mainly because it's cold chasing moisture.. didn't use those words.. but basically even the NWS is saying it, haha. That's when I gave up outside a flizzard with any moisture possibly left around these parts.

"
Local top down tool
indicates a period of rain/snow mix Thu nt for the central and
east FA. Confidence limited due to several key factors in our
local perfect storm approach for significant winter weather not
being met. Main issue is cold air not being in place before the
onset of precip but rather is coming in as the
precipitation/moisture is shifting out.
"
 
Rain Cold said:
It seems near impossible to track a snowstorm for Raleigh with more than 24 hours lead time.
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That’s certainly the same for metro ATL - both good and bad. Just in the past few years we’ve had straight rain on a 3-5” NWS snow forecast in Jan 2017, the surprise big snow in Dec 2017, and last weekend’s surprise pasting of the northern ‘burbs. That’s a big part of the reason I hang around here - you get a much better feel for the variables and possibilities than you do from local Mets. This place is the reason I had my wife pull my son out of school an hour before snowmaggedon started in 2014. She thought I was nuts. A few hours later they were home and all her friends were hopelessly stuck on the roads and everyone thought I was a wizard.
 
SD said:
Anyone have Euro verification scores at the sfc?
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Grit said it's 0-5 for winter storms for NC so far this year. So there's that, I guess.
 
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